Montedio Yamagata vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
41%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
May 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets” vs “Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Montedio Yamagata (-2.5)
0xa5b295…370e
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x68f5fb…ba0a
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd6d00c…a2e5
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xf9c843…8a5a
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Montedio Yamagata (-1.5)
0xc6b29b…917b
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xda0ea1…f5e3
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Thespa Gunma (-1.5)
0xa980d1…29b1
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc26872…5101
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Thespa Gunma (-2.5)
0xf0472b…99af
Cluster 2
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd68383…5708
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Yokohama FC (-1.5)
0x2c1d81…eecf
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x22beac…2bae
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Yokohama FC (-2.5)
0x63f37e…c527
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Tochigi City FC (-2.5)
0xd08f51…1e15
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd165f0…81c8
Cluster 3
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x75a530…9f1f
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x1d1df7…7c61
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: Tochigi SC (-2.5)
0x638499…2a00
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xd90426…8b0d
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x3dd375…cb9a
What moved the line
- May 3Both Teams to Score↓8pp59→51¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Tochigi City FC (-2.5)↑5pp32→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Thespa Gunma (-1.5)↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Yokohama FC (-2.5)↑4pp34→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Yokohama FC (-1.5)↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.