Will Jack Harlow be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−4pp
14h ago
24h volume
$0
19 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Taylor Swift be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Will Taylor Swift be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXKXROLEATEVENTGOVBALL-26DEC31-TAY
Cluster 2
Will Drake be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Will Drake be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026?: Drake
KXKXROLEATEVENTGOVBALL-26DEC31-DRA
Cluster 3
Will Bad Bunny be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Will Bad Bunny be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026?: Bad Bunny
KXKXROLEATEVENTGOVBALL-26DEC31-BAD
Cluster 4
Will Kendrick Lamar be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Cluster 5
Will Travis Scott be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Will Travis Scott be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026?: Travis Scott
KXKXROLEATEVENTGOVBALL-26DEC31-TRA
Cluster 6
Will SZA be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Will SZA be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026?: SZA
KXKXROLEATEVENTGOVBALL-26DEC31-SZA
Cluster 7
Will Post Malone be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Will Post Malone be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026?: Post Malone
KXKXROLEATEVENTGOVBALL-26DEC31-POS
Cluster 8
Will Billie Eilish be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Will Billie Eilish be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026?: Billie Eilish
KXKXROLEATEVENTGOVBALL-26DEC31-BIL
Cluster 9
Will Olivia Rodrigo be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Cluster 10
Will The Weeknd be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Will The Weeknd be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026?: The Weeknd
KXKXROLEATEVENTGOVBALL-26DEC31-WEE
Cluster 11
Will Dua Lipa be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Will Dua Lipa be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026?: Dua Lipa
KXKXROLEATEVENTGOVBALL-26DEC31-DUA
Cluster 12
Will Playboi Carti be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Will Playboi Carti be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026?: Playboi Carti
KXKXROLEATEVENTGOVBALL-26DEC31-PLA
Cluster 13
Will Tyler, The Creator be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Cluster 14
Will Miley Cyrus be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Will Miley Cyrus be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026?: Miley Cyrus
KXKXROLEATEVENTGOVBALL-26DEC31-MIL
Cluster 15
Will Doja Cat be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Will Doja Cat be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026?: Doja Cat
KXKXROLEATEVENTGOVBALL-26DEC31-DOJ
Cluster 16
Will Sabrina Carpenter be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Cluster 17
Will Megan Thee Stallion be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Cluster 18
Will Ice Spice be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Will Ice Spice be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026?: Ice Spice
KXKXROLEATEVENTGOVBALL-26DEC31-ICE
Cluster 19
Will Karol G be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026
Will Karol G be a Headliner at Governors Ball Music Festival 2026?: Karol G
KXKXROLEATEVENTGOVBALL-26DEC31-KAR
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Jack Harlow will be announced as a headliner for Governors Ball Music Festival 2026, currently set at 8%. The low probability suggests market participants view him as an unlikely choice for the festival's top billing, despite his commercial success in recent years. Key considerations include his chart performance and touring history relative to typical Governors Ball headliners, festival booking patterns from previous years, and competing artist probabilities. The festival's lineup announcement—typically occurring in early spring—represents the primary catalyst that will resolve this market. Market data shows very low conviction across most artist contracts, with only A$AP Rocky trading significantly higher at 94 cents, suggesting genuine uncertainty about the entire 2026 lineup rather than strong conviction against Harlow specifically.
- ›Jack Harlow has not headlined major multi-day festivals comparable to Governors Ball, limiting precedent for such a booking
- ›Governors Ball typically features established artists with sustained mainstream presence; Harlow's chart momentum peaked in 2022-2023
- ›The 94-cent probability on A$AP Rocky versus 8 cents on Harlow suggests substantial competitive pressure from other artists in the consideration set
- ›Lineup announcements typically occur in April-May; any official announcement would immediately resolve uncertainty
- ›Recent tour attendance and streaming data would directly impact his competitiveness for premium festival slots
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.