Will Democratic win the House race for PA-14
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 57% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
57%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$15K
19 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
503 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Republican win the House race
Will Republican win the House race for TX-26?: Brandon Gill
KXHOUSERACE-TX26-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for FL-10?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-FL10-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MN-01?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-MN01-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AL-02?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-AL02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for VA-06?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-VA06-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for FL-25?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-FL25-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MS-01?: Trent Kelly
KXHOUSERACE-MS01-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for OK-03?: Frank Lucas
KXHOUSERACE-OK03-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MN-08?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-MN08-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for KY-04?: Ed Gallrein
KXHOUSERACE-KY04-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for TX-19?: Tom Sell
KXHOUSERACE-TX19-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for KS-03?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-KS03-26-R
Cluster 2
Will Democratic win the House race
Will Democratic win the House race for TX-19?: Kyle Rable
KXHOUSERACE-TX19-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for AL-02?: Democratic party
KXHOUSERACE-AL02-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-10?: Democratic party
KXHOUSERACE-FL10-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-22?: Democratic party
KXHOUSERACE-FL22-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for OH-07?: Brian Poindexter
KXHOUSERACE-OH07-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MN-08?: Democratic party
KXHOUSERACE-MN08-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for OH-15?: Don Leonard
KXHOUSERACE-OH15-26-D
Analysis
This probability indicates a near-even chance that the Democratic candidate will win Pennsylvania's 14th congressional district in the upcoming election. At 49%, the market is essentially split, suggesting the race remains highly competitive with no clear frontrunner. The current level likely reflects the district's historical voting patterns, recent polling data, and candidate quality. Factors pushing the probability up would include strong Democratic turnout models or favorable candidate positioning, while Republican momentum or demographic shifts in the district could lower it. The primary driver of this probability will likely shift as election day approaches and more concrete campaign data becomes available.
- ›PA-14 district composition and recent election results (2020, 2022) show whether the district leans Democratic, Republican, or truly competitive
- ›Current polling averages and demographic data for this specific race, including registered voter composition
- ›Candidate profile and fundraising disparities, which historically correlate with House race competitiveness
- ›National political environment and generic ballot polling, which typically influences off-cycle congressional races
- ›Early voting or absentee ballot trends if available closer to the election date
What moved the line
- Jun 16Brandon Gill↑84pp1→85¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Tom Sell↑73pp1→74¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Trent Kelly↑72pp25→97¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Frank Lucas↑72pp1→73¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Tom Sell↓41pp42→1¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- AZ-05 House Election Winnerlast 81% · 0d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 0d
- MN-08 House Election Winnerlast 73% · 0d
- KY-04 House Election Winnerlast 90% · 0d
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winnerlast 5% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Midterm Election Odds Shift: Democrats Favored for House, Senate Toss-Up
Democrats are now 78¢ to win the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a coin flip with Republicans at 56¢. The California Governor primary heavily favors Xavier Becerra at 89¢. Peru's election shows Keiko Fujimori solidifying at 93¢.
California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.