Will Democratic win the House race for PA-14

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment of the likelihood that the Democratic candidate will win Pennsylvania's 14th Congressional District in the next House election. The 50% midpoint suggests the race is viewed as highly competitive, with neither party holding a substantial advantage at this time. Movement in this probability would likely reflect shifts in polling data, changes in candidate positioning, demographic shifts in the district, and the broader political environment heading into the election. The most significant catalyst for resolving this uncertainty would be the election itself, though primary results, major campaign announcements, or significant polling movements could substantially shift the probability before then. Trader activity in this contract appears relatively modest compared to other House races, suggesting limited certainty among participants about the race's outcome.

• ›Current polling trends in PA-14 and whether Democratic or Republican candidates show sustained leads or narrowing margins
• ›District demographics and historical voting patterns compared to current political alignment and turnout expectations
• ›Candidate quality, fundraising totals, and name recognition of the specific nominees running in the race
• ›Broader Pennsylvania statewide political environment and performance trends in recent election cycles
• ›Early voting patterns and registration data if available closer to the election date

What moved the line

• Aug 11Republican party↓24pp71→47¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 8Brian Poindexter↑12pp63→75¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Brian Poindexter↑10pp60→70¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Max Miller↓8pp37→29¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 8Max Miller↓8pp33→25¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds