Will Democratic win the House race for PA-14
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 56% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
56%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+7pp
10h ago
24h volume
$2K
19 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
549 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Republican win the House race
Will Republican win the House race for VA-05?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-VA05-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for LA-02?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-LA02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for TX-23?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-TX23-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for IA-02?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-IA02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for ND-AL?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-NDAL-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for TX-26?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-TX26-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for KY-03?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-KY03-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for KS-04?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-KS04-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-09?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-MI09-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for FL-25?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-FL25-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for WY-AL?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-WYAL-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for KY-06?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-KY06-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-09?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-NC09-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-14?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-NC14-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for SC-06?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-SC06-26-R
Cluster 2
Will Democratic win the House race
Will Democratic win the House race for NY-21?: Democratic party
KXHOUSERACE-NY21-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for TX-07?: Democratic party
KXHOUSERACE-TX07-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for OH-06?: Democratic party
KXHOUSERACE-OH06-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-04?: Democratic party
KXHOUSERACE-FL04-26-D
Analysis
This probability indicates a near-even chance that the Democratic candidate will win Pennsylvania's 14th congressional district in the upcoming election. At 49%, the market is essentially split, suggesting the race remains highly competitive with no clear frontrunner. The current level likely reflects the district's historical voting patterns, recent polling data, and candidate quality. Factors pushing the probability up would include strong Democratic turnout models or favorable candidate positioning, while Republican momentum or demographic shifts in the district could lower it. The primary driver of this probability will likely shift as election day approaches and more concrete campaign data becomes available.
- ›PA-14 district composition and recent election results (2020, 2022) show whether the district leans Democratic, Republican, or truly competitive
- ›Current polling averages and demographic data for this specific race, including registered voter composition
- ›Candidate profile and fundraising disparities, which historically correlate with House race competitiveness
- ›National political environment and generic ballot polling, which typically influences off-cycle congressional races
- ›Early voting or absentee ballot trends if available closer to the election date
What moved the line
- May 2Republican party↑26pp16→42¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Republican party↑18pp2→20¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Republican party↓10pp95→85¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Democratic party↑10pp5→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Republican party↓9pp23→14¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.