Will Democratic win the House race for PA-14
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 60% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
60%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
18 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
457 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Republican win the House race
Will Republican win the House race for OH-07?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-OH07-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NY-02?: Andrew Garbarino
KXHOUSERACE-NY02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MO-02?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-MO02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for TX-23?: Brandon Herrera
KXHOUSERACE-TX23-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-14?: Tim Moore
KXHOUSERACE-NC14-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for FL-22?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-FL22-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NY-21?: Anthony Constantino
KXHOUSERACE-NY21-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-11?: Republican party
KXHOUSERACE-MI11-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for TX-01?: Nathaniel Moran
KXHOUSERACE-TX01-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for TX-38?: Jon Bonck
KXHOUSERACE-TX38-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for SC-01?: Jenny Costa Honeycutt
KXHOUSERACE-SC01-26-R
Cluster 2
Will Democratic win the House race
Will Democratic win the House race for OH-07?: Brian Poindexter
KXHOUSERACE-OH07-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for TN-05?: Democratic party
KXHOUSERACE-TN05-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for AL-02?: Democratic party
KXHOUSERACE-AL02-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NY-21?: Blake Gendebien
KXHOUSERACE-NY21-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for CA-43?: Maxine Waters
KXHOUSERACE-CA43-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for VA-04?: Democratic party
KXHOUSERACE-VA04-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for LA-06?: Democratic party
KXHOUSERACE-LA06-26-D
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment of the likelihood that the Democratic candidate will win Pennsylvania's 14th Congressional District in the next House election. The 50% midpoint suggests the race is viewed as highly competitive, with neither party holding a substantial advantage at this time. Movement in this probability would likely reflect shifts in polling data, changes in candidate positioning, demographic shifts in the district, and the broader political environment heading into the election. The most significant catalyst for resolving this uncertainty would be the election itself, though primary results, major campaign announcements, or significant polling movements could substantially shift the probability before then. Trader activity in this contract appears relatively modest compared to other House races, suggesting limited certainty among participants about the race's outcome.
- ›Current polling trends in PA-14 and whether Democratic or Republican candidates show sustained leads or narrowing margins
- ›District demographics and historical voting patterns compared to current political alignment and turnout expectations
- ›Candidate quality, fundraising totals, and name recognition of the specific nominees running in the race
- ›Broader Pennsylvania statewide political environment and performance trends in recent election cycles
- ›Early voting patterns and registration data if available closer to the election date
What moved the line
- Jul 29Republican party↓17pp59→42¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Brian Poindexter↓10pp58→48¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Brian Poindexter↑9pp56→65¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 29Brian Poindexter↑8pp45→53¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Brian Poindexter↑8pp48→56¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-1last 49% · 1d
- Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Senate race before Aug 4, 2026last 89% · 1d
- Will Conservative win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral electionlast 97% · 1d
- Will Conservative Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral electionlast 4% · 1d
- Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be above 20%last 97% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Election 2026: House control odds shift as Dem momentum continues
After a string of special election wins and favorable polling, Democrats’ probability of winning the House in 2026 jumped 3¢ to 83¢. The Senate remains a knife‑edge, with Republicans at 53¢. The Michigan Democratic Senate primary sees Abdul El‑Sayed as a near‑certainty (97¢) on massive volume.
2026 Midterms: Democrats Favored to Keep House; Senate Battlegrounds Tight
The market gives Democrats an 83% chance of retaining the House, while Senate control is a toss‑up (45% Democrat, 55% Republican). Mega‑volume markets like the Michigan Senate primary (410k volume) and the Florida gubernatorial primary (166k volume) highlight intense intraparty competition.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.