Albirex Niigata vs. Kamatamare Sanuki
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
40%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−1pp
10h ago
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki” vs “Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xa9a006…9c94
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x487003…01fe
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki: Draw (Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki)
0x8f340f…1ee8
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki: Kataller Toyama
0x5261c5…e1bc
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets: Kataller Toyama (-2.5)
0xa0c83b…2708
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets: Kamatamare Sanuki (-2.5)
0x082d3e…9b88
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets: Kamatamare Sanuki (-1.5)
0x7056f5…f07f
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd10859…62db
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x881f45…deb3
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets: Kataller Toyama (-1.5)
0xa18b4a…9f97
Cluster 2
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis: Albirex Niigata
0xa0a31c…2bc7
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets: Albirex Niigata (-1.5)
0x01a64b…9a7e
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis: Draw (Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis)
0x263600…90e2
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xbff960…8b67
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets: Tokushima Vortis (-1.5)
0x7eb8e5…c63f
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xc21a62…0eea
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xbeb972…3a3f
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets: Albirex Niigata (-2.5)
0x1e0203…ea73
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x168e56…f6b6
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis: Tokushima Vortis
0xb3a05a…67d6
Analysis
This 41% probability represents the market's assessment that Albirex Niigata will defeat Kamatamare Sanuki in an upcoming J2 League match. The current level reflects Albirex Niigata's stronger recent form and higher league standing relative to Kamatamare Sanuki, balanced against the uncertainty inherent in any single match outcome. The probability could shift based on team news, injury updates, or recent performance trends in the days leading up to kickoff. The match result itself will provide definitive resolution, making pre-match team sheets and line-up confirmations critical information points. Current contract liquidity is minimal across related markets, suggesting limited trading activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads.
- ›Albirex Niigata's current league position and win percentage versus Kamatamare Sanuki's comparative standing in the J2 League table
- ›Recent head-to-head records between these two clubs and performance trends in their last 5-10 matches
- ›Confirmed player availability, injury reports, and lineup changes announced in the 24-48 hours before match kickoff
- ›Home-field advantage and recent home/away performance splits for both teams
- ›Low contract volume ($0 24h) across related markets, indicating potential pricing inefficiency or low market confidence in contract reliability
What moved the line
- May 3Kamatamare Sanuki (-1.5)↑5pp33→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Tokushima Vortis (-1.5)↑5pp33→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Kamatamare Sanuki (-2.5)↑4pp34→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Kataller Toyama (-2.5)↑4pp32→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 3O/U 4.5↑3pp29→32¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.