Who will Trump meet with in April
Leader sits at 97% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Keir Starmer
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
79¢
Ahmed al-Sharaa
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$948
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
959 days
Venue
Polymarket
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will Trump meet with in 2026
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Ahmed al-Sharaa
0x6fb581…1d45
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Keir Starmer
0x16f8fc…1cc5
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Pope Leo XIV
0x01d0f2…a9ea
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Jair Bolsonaro
0xd79182…432c
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Changpeng Zhao
0xfad216…0a40
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Lai Ching-te
0xe9d59a…5940
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Nick Fuentes
0xb94be4…bf15
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Yoon Suk Yeol
0xe05a7b…b9b0
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Mohammed bin Salman
0x1d64e8…c63b
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: iShowSpeed
0xea1490…a509
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: MrBeast
0x498ffa…92ce
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Aleksandr Lukashenko
0x9a59e1…02a2
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Kim Jong Un
0xb53954…18fc
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Nicolás Maduro
0xc05743…8fb3
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Vladimir Putin
0xc57bc9…7081
What moved the line
- Jun 1Ahmed al-Sharaa↑13pp68→81¢ · Polymarket
- May 30Ahmed al-Sharaa↑10pp68→78¢ · Polymarket
- May 31Ahmed al-Sharaa↓10pp78→68¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4Ahmed al-Sharaa↑10pp70→80¢ · Polymarket
- May 30Keir Starmer↑7pp84→91¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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