Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis
Leader sits at 51% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Albirex Niigata
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
Tokushima Vortis
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis
Analysis
This 43% probability reflects market expectations that Albirex Niigata will win their J2 League match against Tokushima Vortis. The pricing suggests a relatively competitive matchup with meaningful uncertainty. Albirex's recent form, home/away status, and squad availability will influence the outcome, while Tokushima's defensive organization and counter-attacking efficiency could determine whether the lower-seeded team pulls off an upset. The match result will be determined on the scheduled fixture date, with resolution dependent on the final scoreline and any applicable league rules. Wider market contracts pricing draws at 39¢ and total goals markets suggest bettors expect a close, possibly low-scoring affair with genuine upset potential.
- ›Albirex's current league position and recent win/loss record compared to Tokushima's performance trajectory in the 2026 J2 League season
- ›Head-to-head historical matchup records and goal differential in previous encounters between these clubs
- ›Squad availability including injuries to key forwards, defenders, or midfield playmakers on either side
- ›Home venue advantage if applicable, combined with each team's home/away record split for the season
- ›Tokushima's defensive record and Albirex's conversion efficiency, which would predict whether the under-2.5 and under-1.5 goal markets reflect realistic scoring patterns
What moved the line
- May 3Albirex Niigata↑3pp46→49¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.