Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC
Leader sits at 40% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kyōto Sanga FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Avispa Fukuoka
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC
Analysis
This 37% probability represents the estimated likelihood that Avispa Fukuoka will defeat Kyōto Sanga FC in an upcoming J-League match. The aggregate probability sits between Kalshi's 30% and Polymarket's 40%, suggesting moderate disagreement across venues about Fukuoka's chances. The probability reflects typical factors in soccer prediction: recent team form, head-to-head records, home-field advantage, and current league standings. The match itself will definitively resolve this uncertainty once played. Bettors appear to view Kyōto as a slight favorite, though the 10-percentage-point gap between venues indicates uncertainty remains about Fukuoka's true win probability.
- ›Kalshi's 30% implies stronger confidence in Kyōto; Polymarket's 40% suggests moderately closer odds, indicating real disagreement on team strength
- ›Fukuoka's recent form and win-loss record relative to Kyōto in their last 5-10 matches would be the primary driver of any update
- ›Home-field status and venue location matter significantly in J-League outcomes; the match location determines a structural advantage
- ›League table positions and current season performance gaps between the teams establish baseline competitive context
- ›Head-to-head historical win rates between Avispa and Kyōto provide statistical anchoring for probability calibration
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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