Will Donald Trump sue CBS before May 2026
Leader sits at 37% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Nov 4, 2026
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Before January 20, 2029
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
912 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump
Will Donald Trump leave office before 2028?: Before 2028
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-28
Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?: Before January 20, 2029
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-JAN2029
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?: Before Nov 4, 2026
KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26NOV04
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26SEP01
Will Donald Trump visit Vatican City before Jan 1, 2027?: Vatican City
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-VAT
Analysis
This question asks whether Donald Trump will sue CBS before May 2026. The current 94% probability indicates markets view a lawsuit as highly likely within this timeframe. The high probability reflects Trump's documented history of litigation and recent disputes with media organizations, particularly following CBS's 60 Minutes interview and fact-checking practices. Key drivers include Trump's stated grievances with specific networks and his track record of initiating legal action in response to perceived unfair coverage. The main uncertainty hinges on whether Trump's legal team will actually file suit before the May 2026 deadline, rather than pursuing alternative responses or deferring action. Since we are currently in early May 2026, this question is nearly at its resolution point, meaning the outcome should become apparent within days or weeks based on any filed litigation announcements.
- ›Trump has previously sued or threatened legal action against media organizations; CBS litigation history and recent disputes provide context for likelihood assessment
- ›The specific CBS incident or reporting that prompted this prediction—such as a recent 60 Minutes segment or fact-checking claim—determines urgency and legal team prioritization
- ›The May 2026 deadline is imminent (current date is May 5, 2026), making this a very near-term resolution with limited time remaining
- ›Trump's legal team's capacity and current litigation priorities affect whether they file before month-end versus pursuing other remedies
- ›The specificity of 'suing CBS' versus other networks matters; Trump may target different media entities with different timing
What moved the line
- Jul 18Before Nov 4, 2026↑9pp31→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Before Nov 4, 2026↑3pp40→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Before Nov 4, 2026↓3pp43→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17Before Sep 1, 2026↓3pp26→23¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
- Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 7 between Jun 15, 2026 and Jun 21, 2026last 95% · 4d
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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