Will Donald Trump sue CBS before May 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jul 1, 2026
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
Before Jun 1, 2026
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$53K
liquid
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump
Will Donald Trump visit China before May 15, 2026?: Before May 15, 2026
KXTRUMPCHINA-26-MAY15
Will Donald Trump visit China before Jan 1, 2027?: China
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-CHI
Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026?: Before August 1, 2026
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-26AUG01
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in May 2026?: Yes
KXNEWTARIFFS-26MAY-JUN01
Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXAGANNOUNCE-26-JUL01
Will Donald Trump visit China before Jun 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026
KXTRUMPCHINA-26-JUN01
Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before May 8, 2026?: Before May 8, 2026
KXAGANNOUNCE-26-MAY08
Will Donald Trump endorse John Cornyn AND Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate Runoff before May 26, 2026?: Donald Trump → John Cornyn AND Ken Paxton
KXTXRUNOFFENDORSE-26MAY26-DJT-BOTH
Will Donald Trump visit China before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXTRUMPCHINA-26-JUL01
Will Donald Trump leave office before 2028?: Before 2028
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-28
Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXAGANNOUNCE-26-AUG01
Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Jun 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026
KXAGANNOUNCE-26-JUN01
Will Donald Trump endorse John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate Runoff before May 26, 2026?: Donald Trump → John Cornyn
KXTXRUNOFFENDORSE-26MAY26-DJT-JCOR
Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?: Before January 20, 2029
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-JAN2029
Will Donald Trump visit Vatican City before Jan 1, 2027?: Vatican City
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-VAT
Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXAGANNOUNCE-26-SEP01
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?: Before Nov 4, 2026
KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26NOV04
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26JUL01
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on revoking, terminating, or rescinding the suspension of entry for nationals of Haiti, Iran, Côte d'Ivoire, or Senegal before the World Cup?: Yes
KXFIFATRAVEL-26JUN11
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26SEP01
What moved the line
- Apr 30Before Sep 1, 2026↓21pp74→53¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Before Jul 1, 2026↓13pp59→46¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Before May 15, 2026↑11pp65→76¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Before Aug 1, 2026↓10pp66→56¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Before Sep 1, 2026↑10pp53→63¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.