Bengaluru FC vs. Mumbai City FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 45%, Polymarket at 32% — a 13pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
5 contracts
Polymarket
32%
15 contracts
Cross-venue gap
13pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$777
20 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 45¢ · Polymarket 32¢ · 13pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (32¢, 15 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (45¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC” vs “Will Zero Tenacity win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC: Draw (Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC)
0xcfe0a0…35ee
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x1c8aa1…811a
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: Mumbai City FC (-1.5)
0x859e14…c478
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: East Bengal FC (-1.5)
0x1ef468…3cd4
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x4d7c4d…2b66
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC: East Bengal FC
0x97080a…f8a2
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: Mumbai City FC (-2.5)
0x870a50…7744
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x53fd8b…a3a0
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC: Mumbai City FC
0xffedbd…a322
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc8761a…bc65
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: East Bengal FC (-2.5)
0x39ca4c…9a02
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x8a0a7c…9c4e
Cluster 2
Will Zero Tenacity win
Cluster 3
Will Nigma Galaxy win
Cluster 4
Odisha FC vs. Bengaluru FC
Cluster 5
Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Mumbai Indians Winner
Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Mumbai Indians Winner?: Mumbai Indians
KXIPLGAME-26MAY10MIRCB-MI
Cluster 6
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino: CD Palestino
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino: CD Palestino
0x3299d6…ce11
What moved the line
- May 2Nigma Galaxy↑34pp37→71¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Zero Tenacity↑10pp12→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Nigma Galaxy↑9pp70→79¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Draw (Odisha FC vs. Bengaluru FC)↑8pp31→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Mumbai City FC (-2.5)↑7pp14→21¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.