SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 5 outcomes5 contractsKalshirefreshed 7 min ago

BNB price on Apr 21, 2026

Leader sits at 13% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

13%

$520 or above

runner-up 13¢leader 13¢

Outcomes

5

winner-take-all

Runner-up

13¢

$525 or above

Spread

0pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

not derived

Venue

Kalshi

5 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday$520 or above: 8% (2 days, 2 points)$520 or above: 8% on 2026-05-03$525 or above: 8% (2 days, 2 points)$525 or above: 8% on 2026-05-03$535 or above: 8% (2 days, 2 points)$535 or above: 8% on 2026-05-03
$520 or above8¢$525 or above8¢$535 or above8¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • May 3$520 or above5pp38¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3$525 or above5pp38¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3$535 or above5pp38¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3$540 or above5pp38¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3$545 or above5pp38¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.