Who will Trump talk to in April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$18K
4 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
1230 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “Who will be Trump's next Attorney General” vs “Who will win the next presidential election”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General
Cluster 2
Who will win the next presidential election
Who will win the next presidential election?: Donald J. Trump
KXPRESPERSON-28-DTRU
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations about who will serve as Trump's next Attorney General, with Todd Blanche currently priced as the leading candidate at 74%. Blanche's position reflects his experience as Trump's criminal defense attorney and his prominence in recent high-profile legal proceedings. The significant gap between Blanche (74%) and other candidates like Lee Zeldin (6%) and Ron DeSantis (4%) suggests strong market consensus, though alternative candidates retain non-trivial probabilities. The outcome will resolve once Trump formally nominates and the Senate confirms an Attorney General, or through public announcement of the appointment. Market movement would likely follow shifts in media coverage, Trump's public statements about his preferred candidate, or developments in pending legal matters affecting candidate viability.
- ›Todd Blanche's documented prior legal representation of Trump and public visibility in recent cases
- ›Comparison of Blanche's prior government experience versus alternative candidates like Zeldin and DeSantis
- ›Volume concentration: $9,906 in 24-hour volume on the leading contract versus $1,801 and $1,117 on alternatives suggests uneven market participation
- ›Timing of formal nomination announcement by Trump and subsequent Senate confirmation process
- ›Public statements or positioning by Blanche, Zeldin, DeSantis, or other potential candidates regarding willingness to serve
What moved the line
- Jun 26Todd Blanche↑5pp69→74¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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