Who will Trump talk to in April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 26%, Polymarket at 34% — a 8pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
8 contracts
Polymarket
34%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
8pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$63K
20 contracts
Top contract
62¢
$17K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 26¢ · Polymarket 34¢ · 8pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (26¢, 8 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (34¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Who will Trump
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Xi Jinping
0x3d6148…b987
Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General?: Todd Blanche
0x788c96…c329
Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General?: Ron DeSantis
0xf14b53…4d69
Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General?: No Announcement by June 30
0xc3fdb5…aa63
Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General?: Lee Zeldin
0x9157c8…e33a
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Steve Bannon
0x4a869d…9ad2
Cluster 2
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Todd Blanche
KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Ron DeSantis
KXNEXTAG-29-RDES
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Lee Zeldin
KXNEXTAG-29-LZEL
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Jeanine Pirro
KXNEXTAG-29-JPIR
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Harmeet Dhillon
KXNEXTAG-29-HDHI
Cluster 3
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Kash Patel
0xde2be5…badf
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Howard Lutnick
0x6eb866…8483
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Karoline Leavitt
0x1960b1…bcb6
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Susie Wiles
0xa8ce9e…90be
Cluster 4
Will Trump say "Who are you with / Where are you from" before
Will Trump say "Who are you with / Where are you from" before May 4, 2026?: Who are you with / Where are you from
KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY04-WHO
Will Trump say "Who are you with / Where are you from" before Jun 1, 2026?: Who are you with / Where are you from
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUN01-WHO
Cluster 5
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by
Cluster 6
Who will win the next presidential election
Who will win the next presidential election?: Donald J. Trump
KXPRESPERSON-28-DTRU
What moved the line
- May 1Todd Blanche↓16pp45→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Who are you with / Where are you from↓15pp37→22¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Who are you with / Where are you from↓13pp56→43¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Todd Blanche↑12pp40→52¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Who are you with / Where are you from↑11pp53→64¢ · Kalshi
More like this
Other questions in trump.
In trump
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.