Who will Trump talk to in April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
1163 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the next presidential election
Who will win the next presidential election?: Donald J. Trump
KXPRESPERSON-28-DTRU
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations about who will serve as Trump's next Attorney General, with Todd Blanche currently priced as the leading candidate at 74%. Blanche's position reflects his experience as Trump's criminal defense attorney and his prominence in recent high-profile legal proceedings. The significant gap between Blanche (74%) and other candidates like Lee Zeldin (6%) and Ron DeSantis (4%) suggests strong market consensus, though alternative candidates retain non-trivial probabilities. The outcome will resolve once Trump formally nominates and the Senate confirms an Attorney General, or through public announcement of the appointment. Market movement would likely follow shifts in media coverage, Trump's public statements about his preferred candidate, or developments in pending legal matters affecting candidate viability.
- ›Todd Blanche's documented prior legal representation of Trump and public visibility in recent cases
- ›Comparison of Blanche's prior government experience versus alternative candidates like Zeldin and DeSantis
- ›Volume concentration: $9,906 in 24-hour volume on the leading contract versus $1,801 and $1,117 on alternatives suggests uneven market participation
- ›Timing of formal nomination announcement by Trump and subsequent Senate confirmation process
- ›Public statements or positioning by Blanche, Zeldin, DeSantis, or other potential candidates regarding willingness to serve
Recently closed in trump
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026last 38% · 15d
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissionerlast 49% · 16d
- Who will be Trump's next Attorney Generallast 97% · 27d
- Will President Trump issue any executive action on declassifying or releasing records related to unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) or UFOs before Jul 1, 2026last 3% · 35d
- Will Trump say "Airbnb / ABNB" before Aug 1, 2026last 6% · 37d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In trump
Related reading
Trump administration and Press Secretary speculation dominate political markets
The market for the next White House Press Secretary is the single highest-volume market in the entire dataset, with Maria Bartiromo leading at 14¢. Other Trump-focused markets on resignation and impeachment are also active, signaling intense trader interest in the political landscape.
Trump Administration Turmoil: Hegseth Departure Odds at 31%
Pete Hegseth's probability of leaving the Defense Secretary role before 2027 is 31¢ with 31,585 volume. Combined with 15¢ impeachment odds, markets are pricing a non-trivial chance of major upheaval.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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