Bundesliga
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
21%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$57
1 contracts
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
120 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Bundesliga: Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: FSV Mainz 05
Bundesliga: Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: FSV Mainz 05
0x6ee34e…f793
Analysis
This probability estimates the chance that at least one Bundesliga team finishes in the European qualification positions (top 4 or Conference League spot) based on current-season performance. The 13-percentage-point gap between venues reflects differing assessments of mid-table competition intensity and injury impacts. Polymarket's higher estimate likely reflects confidence in Stuttgart's top-4 position and assessments of teams like Hamburger SV and Werder Bremen's revival chances, while Kalshi's lower probability suggests skepticism about Conference League qualification odds. The main uncertainty driver is whether mid-table clubs can close gaps to the top four before the season concludes. The season ends in May 2026, making the final matchday the decisive catalyst for resolving this market, as points will determine final standings and qualify teams for next season's European competitions.
- ›Current gap between Kalshi (30%) and Polymarket (43%) indicates genuine disagreement about mid-table teams' realistic qualification prospects
- ›Stuttgart showing 51¢ on top-4 finish while Hamburger SV at 32¢ for Conference League qualification suggests uneven confidence across the contender pool
- ›Remaining matchdays before end of season determine whether distance to qualification positions closes for challengers or expands
- ›High volatility on top contracts (Dortmund at 3¢ despite historical stature suggests current-season performance dominates over brand name in pricing
- ›Trading volume concentrated on two venues with limited arbitrage occurring despite 13pp spread suggests each platform has distinct user base expectations
What moved the line
- May 3Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: FSV Mainz 05↓32pp47→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 1Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: FSV Mainz 05↑23pp26→49¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (21% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.