CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. Club Alianza Atlético - More Markets: O/U 1.5
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 48%, Polymarket at 28% — a 20pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
2 contracts
Polymarket
28%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
20pp
wide divergence
24h move
−2pp
14h ago
24h volume
$3K
19 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 48¢ · Polymarket 28¢ · 20pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (28¢, 17 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (48¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali” vs “National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali: Club Alianza Atlético
0xe3443c…fce3
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali: Draw (Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali)
0x3adc15…5289
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xf11ea2…4b49
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xfab9ac…a061
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x823331…d919
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x80dc4f…a83e
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: Club Alianza Atlético (-2.5)
0xef168a…e777
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: Club Alianza Atlético (-1.5)
0x3f6143…9432
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali: América de Cali
0x434862…9046
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: América de Cali (-1.5)
0x96b339…c2ac
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x5d229c…d749
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: América de Cali (-2.5)
0x29a631…e20d
Cluster 2
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: National Bank of Egypt Club (-2.5)
0x5d63d2…892c
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: National Bank of Egypt Club (-1.5)
0x21ed5a…5e0d
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: Ismaily SC (-1.5)
0xaa1d2c…6cde
Cluster 3
Will Otakar Esports win the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports Valorant match
Cluster 4
Club Always Ready vs. CA Lanús: CA Lanús
Club Always Ready vs. CA Lanús: CA Lanús
0x4eec59…304b
Cluster 5
Will UCAM Esports Club win the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports Valorant match
Cluster 6
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 2.5
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x6495f7…7b3b
Analysis
This market estimates a 32% probability that the CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. Club Alianza Atlético match will produce fewer than 1.5 total goals—meaning either 0 or 1 goal scored combined. The current estimate reflects a notable disagreement between venues: Kalshi traders lean toward under 1.5 goals at 44% probability, while Polymarket traders assess it lower at 30%. The gap suggests uncertainty about team formations, recent scoring patterns, or defensive strength heading into the match. Resolution depends entirely on the match outcome itself, which will determine the final goal count. Analysts evaluating this market typically weigh historical scoring frequency between these teams, their current form and injury status, head-to-head records, and whether either side is particularly defensive-minded this season.
- ›Historical goal-per-match average for both CD Comerciantes Unidos and Club Alianza Atlético in recent fixtures
- ›Current league position and defensive record of both teams, indicating likelihood of low-scoring outcomes
- ›Recent team news including injuries, suspensions, or tactical shifts that could affect scoring patterns
- ›Head-to-head scoring history between these specific opponents
- ›Venue conditions or scheduling factors (e.g., midweek fatigue, travel distance) that may influence match intensity
What moved the line
- May 3UCAM Esports Club↑48pp15→63¢ · Kalshi
- May 2UCAM Esports Club↑11pp4→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Otakar Esports↑8pp5→13¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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