CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: CD Tolima (-1.5)
Leader sits at 66% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 44%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
44¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 7, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: CD Tolima (-1.5)
0x404209…0d40
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: Club Nacional de Football (-1.5)
0xa229d8…a31e
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xbb6532…9186
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x6495f7…7b3b
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xcc83d1…c4a4
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xdd5582…a4ed
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xfdd357…99cb
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: Club Nacional de Football (-2.5)
0xbb148b…bc47
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: CD Tolima (-2.5)
0xe39b53…e126
Analysis
This market reflects a 33% probability that CD Tolima will defeat Club Nacional de Football by a margin of 2+ goals. The current level suggests market participants view Club Nacional as the slight favorite or expect a closer contest. Key drivers of the probability include historical head-to-head performance between these Colombian and Uruguayan clubs, current team form and injury status, and home-field advantage considerations. The match resolution itself serves as the immediate catalyst—once played, the outcome will determine whether the prediction was accurate. Low trading volume across related contracts suggests limited market activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads, which could indicate low overall interest or confidence in these price levels.
- ›Historical win rates and goal differential patterns in prior matchups between CD Tolima and Club Nacional
- ›Recent league performance, goal-scoring trends, and defensive records for both teams in their respective domestic competitions
- ›Venue location and home-field advantage factor (whether the match is played in Colombia or Uruguay)
- ›Team roster availability, including confirmed injuries, suspensions, or recent roster changes that affect playing strength
- ›Market pricing across related contracts (moneyline and over-under odds) for consistency and to identify potential arbitrage signals
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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