Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
33%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−12pp
13h ago
24h volume
$26
20 contracts
Closes
Jun 8, 2026
35 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka” vs “Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd2a242…44ad
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)
0x339193…6144
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Shimizu S-Pulse
0x434537…a9ae
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Shimizu S-Pulse (-2.5)
0xc33d1c…62ae
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Shimizu S-Pulse (-1.5)
0x58a32c…7fa2
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Cerezo Ōsaka
0x87c340…889a
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Draw (Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka)
0xbd1972…c96f
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xfb2380…fa88
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)
0xbf161f…ec44
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x699392…76a7
Cluster 2
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd9e96a…3268
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Kyōto Sanga FC
0xe6b9d5…2783
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5)
0xce2952…4178
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Draw (Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC)
0xdf82b1…7194
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Avispa Fukuoka
0x805f95…893c
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x35fac1…c35e
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xd4cc9a…8cd8
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5)
0xf35f62…6fe2
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xf1423f…1619
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x8ab58d…9774
Analysis
This represents a 45% probability that Cerezo Ōsaka will win against Avispa Fukuoka in their matchup. The current probability reflects moderate uncertainty about the outcome, suggesting near even odds between the two J-League clubs. Cerezo's winning chances would likely increase with recent strong form, home-field advantage if applicable, or key player availability, while they could decrease if Avispa shows superior recent performance or has favorable head-to-head history. The resolution will occur at the conclusion of the scheduled match, with the actual result determining whether this outcome occurs. Market activity has been minimal across related contracts, indicating low trading volume and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that could affect pricing accuracy. Recent performance records, team composition changes, and injury status for key players heading into the match will be primary factors shaping final odds adjustments.
- ›Cerezo Ōsaka's recent form and position in the J-League standings relative to Avispa Fukuoka
- ›Head-to-head historical performance and results between these two clubs in recent seasons
- ›Injury or suspension status of key players for either team prior to match day
- ›Home/away designation and venue-specific performance patterns for both clubs
- ›Avispa Fukuoka's current momentum and recent scoring/defensive metrics
What moved the line
- May 3O/U 1.5↑7pp62→69¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)↑3pp28→31¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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