Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
30%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−8pp
13h ago
24h volume
$26
20 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka” vs “Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd2a242…44ad
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Draw (Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka)
0xbd1972…c96f
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Shimizu S-Pulse (-2.5)
0xc33d1c…62ae
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xfb2380…fa88
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Shimizu S-Pulse (-1.5)
0x58a32c…7fa2
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)
0x339193…6144
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x9ba576…5369
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)
0xbf161f…ec44
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x699392…76a7
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x8f53ed…5fd7
Cluster 2
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd9e96a…3268
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Kyōto Sanga FC
0xe6b9d5…2783
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5)
0xce2952…4178
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5)
0xf35f62…6fe2
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xf1423f…1619
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xd4cc9a…8cd8
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x8ab58d…9774
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5)
0x33b100…116d
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x35fac1…c35e
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)
0xad3d5f…1797
Analysis
This 38% probability reflects market expectations that either Cerezo Ōsaka will outscore Avispa Fukuoka by 2+ goals or that Avispa will win by a similar margin in their upcoming J-League matchups. The aggregate reflects uncertainty across multiple related contracts involving these teams and their respective opponents (Shimizu S-Pulse and Kyōto Sanga FC). The current pricing suggests roughly even odds between underdog and favorite outcomes, with moderate liquidity across contracts. The main drivers are each team's recent form, goal-scoring consistency, and defensive record in the J-League. Resolution depends on the scheduled match results between these teams and their opponents, with outcomes typically determined by the official league records following each fixture. Low trading volume across all contracts indicates limited recent market activity and consensus-building.
- ›Cerezo Ōsaka's recent goal differential and scoring rate compared to their defensive record this season
- ›Avispa Fukuoka's performance against comparable opponents and their consistency in large-margin outcomes
- ›Head-to-head historical matchup patterns between these teams when applicable
- ›Current injuries, suspensions, or roster changes affecting either team's attacking or defensive capabilities
- ›The specific scheduling of matches (home/away designations and fixture timing) that may influence team performance
What moved the line
- May 3O/U 1.5↑7pp62→69¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)↑3pp28→31¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.