Chicago Stars FC vs. Boston Legacy FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 38%, Polymarket at 46% — a 8pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
9 contracts
Polymarket
46%
10 contracts
Cross-venue gap
8pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
19 contracts
Top contract
14¢
$2K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 38¢ · Polymarket 46¢ · 8pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (38¢, 9 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (46¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
13 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will Boston Breach win” vs “FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Boston Breach win
Cluster 2
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt
Cluster 3
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets
Cluster 4
Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner
Cluster 5
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 6
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 7
Will LOUD win the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match
Will LOUD win the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match?: LOUD
KXLOLGAME-26MAY031500VKSLLL-LLL
Cluster 8
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2
Cluster 9
Will Vivo Keyd Stars win the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match
Cluster 10
Will Paris Gentle Mates win the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match
Cluster 11
Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates Call of Duty match
Cluster 12
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Cluster 13
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
What moved the line
- May 1Over 3.5 maps↑26pp2→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Over 3.5 maps↑18pp28→46¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 3.5 maps↓18pp46→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 2O/U 2.5↓12pp53→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓6pp12→6¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.