Chicago Stars FC vs. NJ/NY Gotham FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 38%, Polymarket at 41% — a 3pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
4 contracts
Polymarket
41%
15 contracts
Cross-venue gap
3pp
modest gap
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
19 contracts
Closes
May 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 38¢ · Polymarket 41¢ · 3pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (38¢, 4 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (41¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
14 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt” vs “Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt
Cluster 2
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets
Cluster 3
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 5
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets
Cluster 6
Will LOUD win the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match
Will LOUD win the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match?: LOUD
KXLOLGAME-26MAY031500VKSLLL-LLL
Cluster 7
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2
Cluster 8
Will Vivo Keyd Stars win the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match
Cluster 9
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Cluster 10
Will 7REX win the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX League of Legends match
Will 7REX win the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX League of Legends match?: 7REX
KXLOLGAME-26MAY041900VKSA7RE-7RE
Cluster 11
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x8c7c03…b8bb
Cluster 12
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Cluster 13
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4612ca…3182
Cluster 14
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x34dea0…204d
What moved the line
- May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)↓17pp35→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 2.5↓12pp53→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 27REX↑10pp22→32¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓6pp12→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓5pp17→12¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.