Chicago Stars FC vs. Portland Thorns FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 18 contracts. Kalshi at 36%, Polymarket at 34%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
36%
6 contracts
Polymarket
34%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
2pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
18 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 36¢ · Polymarket 34¢ · 2pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (34¢, 12 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (36¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
13 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Chicago vs Portland Thorns Winner” vs “FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Chicago vs Portland Thorns Winner
Cluster 2
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt
Cluster 3
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 5
Will LOUD win the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match
Will LOUD win the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match?: LOUD
KXLOLGAME-26MAY031500VKSLLL-LLL
Cluster 6
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2
Cluster 7
Will Vivo Keyd Stars win the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match
Cluster 8
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF - More Markets: Viborg FF
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF - More Markets: Viborg FF (-2.5)
0x712d79…37f9
Cluster 9
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: CS Cristal
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: CS Cristal (-2.5)
0xd13fc2…30fc
Cluster 10
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: Club Libertad
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: Club Libertad (-2.5)
0x361624…8104
Cluster 11
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Liaoning Tieren FC
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)
0xeacd4b…9c9e
Cluster 12
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Cluster 13
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Portland Thorns FC will defeat Chicago Stars FC, currently priced at 42 percent across prediction markets. The estimate rests on Portland's home-field advantage and recent competitive form, balanced against Chicago's capability as a regular-season competitor. Liquidity is concentrated on Kalshi's direct winner market ($385 in 24-hour volume), while Polymarket shows broader interest in ancillary soccer outcomes. The 9-percentage-point gap between venues suggests some disagreement about Portland's likelihood, possibly reflecting different trader bases or contract specifications. Resolution will occur when the match concludes, determining whether Portland wins, Chicago wins, or the result is a draw. Current positioning leaves room for movement based on team news, injury reports, or tactical shifts announced closer to kickoff.
- ›Kalshi's single contract prices Portland at 50 percent while Polymarket's 19 contracts average 41 percent, indicating structural disagreement between venues
- ›Chicago Stars FC's recent performance record and goal-differential trends versus Portland Thorns FC's current form and home-field historical win rate
- ›Match venue (Portland home-field advantage typically correlates with 3-5 percentage-point probability shifts in MLS outcomes)
- ›Team roster availability and injury status as of match week, particularly for starting forwards or defensive anchors
- ›The gap between direct winner odds (42 percent) and correlated market indicators like both-teams-to-score pricing (65 percent) suggests either defensive vulnerabilities or offensive capability concerns
What moved the line
- May 2Portland Thorns↑13pp38→51¢ · Kalshi
- May 2O/U 2.5↓12pp53→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓6pp12→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Tie↑6pp15→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Portland Thorns↑5pp51→56¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.