Will JD Vance attend the 2026 White House Correspondents' Dinner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
28%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$584
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
150 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will The winning team of the 2026 Pro football Championship visit The White House before Dec 31, 2026
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Vice President JD Vance will attend the White House Correspondents' Dinner in 2026. At 23%, the market suggests it's unlikely but plausible. Vice presidents historically attend this annual event at lower rates than presidents, and attendance depends on competing priorities, diplomatic schedules, and political circumstances. The current probability would shift based on statements from the White House about attendance plans, any scheduling conflicts with international travel or other commitments, and precedent from whether Vance attended previous years' dinners. The dinner typically occurs in late April or May, which will serve as the definitive resolution point for this question. Market participants are essentially pricing in structural factors favoring non-attendance while leaving room for unexpected confirmation of his participation.
- ›Historical attendance rates for sitting vice presidents at the dinner have varied significantly, affecting baseline expectations
- ›White House scheduling conflicts or international diplomatic commitments in the weeks surrounding the dinner date could deterministically reduce attendance likelihood
- ›Public statements or press guidance from the Vice President's office or White House communications team would directly inform market participants' views
- ›The specific date and confirmed format of the 2026 dinner event must be publicly announced to narrow resolution uncertainty
- ›Precedent from Vance's attendance or non-attendance at previous White House Correspondents' Dinners would provide direct behavioral evidence
What moved the line
- Jul 29Yes↓6pp40→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 28Yes↑3pp37→40¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (28% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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