Club The Strongest vs. Club ABB - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 13 contracts. Kalshi at 31%, Polymarket at 29%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
6 contracts
Polymarket
29%
7 contracts
Cross-venue gap
2pp
tight
24h move
−9pp
39h ago
24h volume
$7K
13 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 31¢ · Polymarket 29¢ · 2pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (29¢, 7 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (31¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Otakar Esports win
Will Otakar Esports win the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports Valorant match?: Otakar Esports
KXVALORANTGAME-26MAY031400UCAMOTA-OTA
Will Otakar Esports win map 1 in the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports match?: Otakar Esports
KXVALORANTMAP-26MAY031400UCAMOTA-1-OTA
Will Otakar Esports win map 2 in the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports match?: Otakar Esports
KXVALORANTMAP-26MAY031400UCAMOTA-2-OTA
Cluster 2
Will UCAM Esports Club win
Will UCAM Esports Club win map 1 in the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports match?: UCAM Esports Club
KXVALORANTMAP-26MAY031400UCAMOTA-1-UCAM
Will UCAM Esports Club win the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports Valorant match?: UCAM Esports Club
KXVALORANTGAME-26MAY031400UCAMOTA-UCAM
Will UCAM Esports Club win map 2 in the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports match?: UCAM Esports Club
KXVALORANTMAP-26MAY031400UCAMOTA-2-UCAM
Cluster 3
Club Always Ready vs. CA Lanús
Cluster 4
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: C
Cluster 5
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: O/U
Analysis
This 39% probability reflects market expectations that Club The Strongest will win their match against Club ABB. The estimate combines data from two venues with an 11-percentage-point spread, suggesting disagreement about the match outcome. The probability rests on assessments of team strength, recent performance, and head-to-head history. Several related markets show modest activity—both-teams-to-score sits at 51%, while goal-line bets cluster around 3.5–4.5 total goals. The match itself represents the primary catalyst that will resolve all uncertainty. Minimal trading volume across contracts ($0 24h) suggests limited recent market engagement, which may explain the venue divergence and leave probabilities vulnerable to new information about team form or lineups.
- ›Polymarket contracts price 11 percentage points higher than Kalshi equivalents, indicating structural disagreement between venues that could narrow post-match details or lineup announcements
- ›Both-teams-to-score probability at 51% suggests relatively balanced attacking threat, constraining spread predictions like The Strongest (-1.5) at 39%
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all listed contracts indicates illiquidity and potential stale pricing unresponsive to recent team developments
- ›Goal-total markets cluster between 3.5 and 4.5, reflecting consensus around moderate offensive output rather than blowout scenarios
- ›The match date and kickoff time remain the primary missing context needed to assess whether probabilities incorporate current team injury reports and form trends
What moved the line
- May 3UCAM Esports Club↑48pp15→63¢ · Kalshi
- May 3UCAM Esports Club↓25pp51→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 3UCAM Esports Club↓25pp51→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 1UCAM Esports Club↓24pp55→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 1UCAM Esports Club↓24pp52→28¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.