DOGE price up in next 15 mins
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 29%, Polymarket at 36% — a 7pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
18 contracts
Polymarket
36%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
7pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$822
19 contracts
Top contract
61¢
$521 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 29¢ · Polymarket 36¢ · 7pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (29¢, 18 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (36¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
7 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Dogecoin price” vs “H100 SXM price up in next week”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Dogecoin price
Dogecoin price on May 8, 2026?: $0.1 or above
KXDOGED-26MAY0817-T0.0999999
Dogecoin price range on May 3, 2026?: $0.11 to 0.1149999
KXDOGE-26MAY0317-B0.112
Dogecoin price range on May 8, 2026?: $0.11 to 0.1149999
KXDOGE-26MAY0817-B0.112
Dogecoin price on May 8, 2026?: $0.105 or above
KXDOGED-26MAY0817-T0.1049999
Dogecoin price range on May 8, 2026?: $0.1 to 0.1049999
KXDOGE-26MAY0817-B0.102
Dogecoin price range on May 3, 2026?: $0.095 to 0.0999999
KXDOGE-26MAY0317-B0.097
Dogecoin price range on May 8, 2026?: $0.105 to 0.1099999
KXDOGE-26MAY0817-B0.107
Dogecoin price range on May 3, 2026?: $0.1 to 0.1049999
KXDOGE-26MAY0317-B0.102
Dogecoin price range on May 3, 2026?: $0.105 to 0.1099999
KXDOGE-26MAY0317-B0.107
Dogecoin price on May 3, 2026?: $0.085 or above
KXDOGED-26MAY0317-T0.0849999
Dogecoin price on May 3, 2026?: $0.1 or above
KXDOGED-26MAY0317-T0.0999999
Dogecoin price on May 8, 2026?: $0.08 or above
KXDOGED-26MAY0817-T0.0799999
Dogecoin price on May 8, 2026?: $0.11 or above
KXDOGED-26MAY0817-T0.1099999
Cluster 2
H100 SXM price up in next week
H100 SXM price up in next week?: Price to Beat: 2.28
KXH100W-26MAY08-2.28
Cluster 3
RTX 5090 price up in next week
RTX 5090 price up in next week?: Price to Beat: 0.48
KXRTX5090W-26MAY08-0.48
Cluster 4
What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026
What price will Dogecoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 0.06
0x39cdaf…7aff
Cluster 5
H200 price up in next week
H200 price up in next week?: Price to Beat: 4.09
KXH200W-26MAY08-4.09
Cluster 6
B200 price up in next week
B200 price up in next week?: Price to Beat: 5.03
KXB200W-26MAY08-5.03
Cluster 7
A100 SXM4 price up in next week
A100 SXM4 price up in next week?: Price to Beat: 1.14
KXA100W-26MAY08-1.14
What moved the line
- May 2Price to Beat: 2.28↑38pp2→40¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Price to Beat: 5.03↑18pp2→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Price to Beat: 2.28↑13pp40→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 3$0.1 to 0.1049999↑12pp11→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 3$0.105 to 0.1099999↑12pp39→51¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.