What will ON Semiconductor Corporation say during their next earnings call
Leader sits at 90% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 76%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
EV / Electric Vehicle
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
76¢
Autonomous / Automation
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
150 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will ON Semiconductor Corporation say during their next earnings call
What will ON Semiconductor Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Tariff
KXEARNINGSMENTIONON-26MAY04-TARI
What will ON Semiconductor Corporation say during their next earnings call?: NIO
KXEARNINGSMENTIONON-26MAY04-NIO
What will ON Semiconductor Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Tailwind
KXEARNINGSMENTIONON-26MAY04-TAIL
What will ON Semiconductor Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Headwind
KXEARNINGSMENTIONON-26MAY04-HEAD
What will ON Semiconductor Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Sineng Electric
KXEARNINGSMENTIONON-26MAY04-SINE
What will ON Semiconductor Corporation say during their next earnings call?: EV / Electric Vehicle
KXEARNINGSMENTIONON-26MAY04-EV
What will ON Semiconductor Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Nvidia
KXEARNINGSMENTIONON-26MAY04-NVID
What will ON Semiconductor Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Autonomous / Automation
KXEARNINGSMENTIONON-26MAY04-AUTO
What will ON Semiconductor Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Backlog
KXEARNINGSMENTIONON-26MAY04-BACK
What will ON Semiconductor Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Market Share
KXEARNINGSMENTIONON-26MAY04-MARK
Analysis
This represents a 50% probability that ON Semiconductor will mention NIO, tariffs, or other specific topics during their next earnings call. The market is split on what management will prioritize in their communications. Factors driving the probability include ON Semiconductor's current exposure to NIO's EV production volumes and supply chain disruptions, as well as geopolitical tariff policies affecting semiconductor exports. The company's next quarterly earnings call, typically occurring within the next 1-2 months based on their standard reporting schedule, will resolve this uncertainty by revealing which topics management addresses and emphasizes. Trading volume concentration in NIO-related contracts (59¢, $1008 volume) suggests market focus on automotive sector commentary, while lower tariff contract prices indicate less confidence in protectionist policy discussion. The resolution depends entirely on what management chooses to discuss rather than underlying business performance.
- ›ON Semiconductor's revenue exposure to NIO customers and Chinese EV manufacturers relative to total revenue
- ›Current U.S.-China trade policy environment and announced or pending tariff implementations affecting semiconductor supply chains
- ›The timing and format of the next scheduled earnings call and whether management typically addresses geopolitical factors
- ›Recent quarterly results showing revenue growth or decline from automotive and EV-related segments
- ›Competitive positioning statements that might naturally lead to discussion of supply chain pressures or customer concentration
What moved the line
- Apr 28NIO↑39pp16→55¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Tariff↑9pp38→47¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Tariff↓9pp41→32¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Autonomous / Automation↓7pp79→72¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Tariff↓6pp47→41¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.