EC Bahia vs. Santos FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 19 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
39%
19 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$931
19 contracts
Top contract
3¢
$306 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets” vs “FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: Santos FC (-2.5)
0x8b7d1b…e535
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: Recoleta FC (-2.5)
0x59c797…6901
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x7c53e9…1f69
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x2e35d2…f460
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x649f75…c7d8
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: Santos FC (-1.5)
0x977bf5…7607
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xbdae7d…8701
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: Recoleta FC (-1.5)
0x227b41…2799
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x5f871d…f819
Cluster 2
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt
Cluster 3
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets
Cluster 4
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 5
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 6
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Cluster 7
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
What moved the line
- May 2O/U 2.5↓12pp53→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Santos FC (-2.5)↑11pp12→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Recoleta FC (-1.5)↑7pp6→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓6pp12→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓5pp17→12¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.