Miami Grand Prix
Leader sits at 52% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Top Constructor?: Mercedes AMG Motorsport
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Top Constructor?: Ferrari
Spread
33pp
contested
24h volume
$11K
liquid
Closes
May 17, 2026
14 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Miami Grand Prix: Top Constructor
Miami Grand Prix: Top Constructor?: Ferrari
KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MIAGP26-FER
Miami Grand Prix: Top Constructor?: McLaren
KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MIAGP26-MCL
Miami Grand Prix: Top Constructor?: Mercedes AMG Motorsport
KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MIAGP26-MER
Miami Grand Prix: Top Constructor?: Red Bull Racing
KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MIAGP26-RED
Analysis
The 83% probability indicates that traders believe the current leader—Hamilton in the KXF1TOP10-MIAGP26-HAM contract—has an 83% chance of finishing in the top 10 at the Miami Grand Prix. This level reflects expectations based on recent performance data, current grid positioning, and historical reliability at this circuit. The probability remains elevated because Hamilton and Mercedes have demonstrated consistent competitiveness, though weather conditions, mechanical failures, or unexpected strategic decisions could shift market confidence. The race itself, scheduled for its 2026 date in the Miami calendar, represents the ultimate resolution point; any pre-race developments—team announcements, practice session results, or injury updates—will likely trigger repricing as traders incorporate new information.
- ›Mercedes' recent race-to-race consistency and historical top-10 finishes at Miami in the 2024-2025 season
- ›Volume concentration: Verstappen at 24¢ and Antonelli at 37¢ across the winner-take-all contracts indicates fragmented opinion on who will lead, supporting the elevated floor for top-10 finish betting
- ›Final practice sessions and qualifying results in the 48 hours before race day will be the primary catalyst for probability adjustments
- ›Mechanical reliability track record for Mercedes power units in high-heat, high-humidity Miami conditions
- ›Field-wide competitive balance: if non-top-10 challengers post unusually strong times, the 83% floor may compress downward
What moved the line
- May 1Top Constructor?: Mercedes AMG Motorsport↓56pp70→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Top Constructor?: Mercedes AMG Motorsport↑19pp18→37¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Top Constructor?: McLaren↑11pp3→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Top Constructor?: McLaren↓10pp13→3¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Top Constructor?: Ferrari↑8pp6→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.