FC Gifu vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
41%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−9pp
10h ago
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro” vs “FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo
0x138f6b…2b05
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x2d6f52…eee5
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x49ed80…fb98
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x12cb79…e2fd
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x2e6bb7…5304
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: AC Nagano Parceiro (-2.5)
0x0f2b3b…9e2a
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-2.5)
0x50d1b1…dd2f
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5)
0x3db89e…85f4
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: AC Nagano Parceiro
0x9bd3d8…a2f1
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-1.5)
0xcca25a…c845
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro)
0xdd765c…86d6
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x3d9112…2eaf
Cluster 2
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-2.5)
0x1852d1…1f72
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xe897e5…45d0
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x0aa172…3ef6
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: FC Gifu (-2.5)
0x357eb0…5b1a
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x3a2525…2e6c
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: FC Gifu
0x55f8ff…ccff
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-1.5)
0x17df3f…3a78
Cluster 3
J2 League: Winner: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
J2 League: Winner: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
0x8df670…1573
Analysis
This 50% probability reflects even odds for a matchup between FC Gifu and Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo in what appears to be a Japanese league fixture. The even split suggests neither team has clear historical or recent form advantages that traders are pricing in, or that insufficient data exists to differentiate them. The probability would move if recent performance data changes—such as injury reports, league standings shifts, or head-to-head historical patterns—indicating one team has structural advantage. The match itself, when scheduled, will be the primary uncertainty resolver, though pre-match trading activity may reflect team lineups, weather conditions, or momentum shifts in the days leading up to kickoff. Limited trading volume on related markets ($0 across top contracts in the past 24 hours) suggests minimal liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads, meaning small position sizes or new information could meaningfully shift the probability.
- ›Current league standings and recent form of both FC Gifu and Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (3-5 most recent matches)
- ›Historical head-to-head record between the two teams, if sufficient data exists
- ›Announced team lineups, injuries to key players, or suspensions affecting either squad
- ›Weather conditions and venue details (if home-field advantage or weather impacts are material factors)
- ›Trading volume and spread dynamics on related markets, indicating whether 50% reflects true uncertainty or illiquidity
What moved the line
- May 3AC Nagano Parceiro↓11pp40→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Both Teams to Score↑5pp50→55¢ · Polymarket
- May 3AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5)↑5pp33→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-1.5)↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3FC Gifu (-2.5)↑4pp32→36¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.