SimpleFunctions
19 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 8 min ago

FC Imabari vs. Kataller Toyama - More Markets

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 19 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

42%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

42%

19 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$193

19 contracts

Top contract

53¢

$193 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 44% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 44% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 19 contracts · 3d

Bracket families

3 clusters across 19 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets” vs “FC Imabari vs. Kōchi United SC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets

9 contracts$0

Cluster 2

FC Imabari vs. Kōchi United SC - More Markets

9 contracts$0

Cluster 3

FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt

1 contract$193

What moved the line

  • May 3FC Imabari (-2.5)6pp3238¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Kamatamare Sanuki (-1.5)5pp3338¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Kōchi United SC (-1.5)5pp3338¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Kamatamare Sanuki (-2.5)4pp3438¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Kataller Toyama (-2.5)4pp3236¢ · Polymarket

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.