Atlanta United FC vs. New England Revolution
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 36%, Polymarket at 23% — a 13pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
36%
16 contracts
Polymarket
23%
4 contracts
Cross-venue gap
13pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$31K
20 contracts
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
1018 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 36¢ · Polymarket 23¢ · 13pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (23¢, 4 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (36¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
12 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Will New England win” vs “New York City vs DC United Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will New England win
Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England
KXSB-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: New England
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New England
KXNFLAFCEAST-27-NE
Cluster 2
New York City vs DC United Winner
Cluster 3
DC United at New York City
DC United at New York City: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY03NYCDCU-1
DC United at New York City: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
KXMLSBTTS-26MAY03NYCDCU
DC United at New York City: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY03NYCDCU-2
Cluster 4
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1
Cluster 5
Will Gavin Newsom
Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?: Gavin Newsom
KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-GNEW
Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXNEWSOMRUN-28-27JAN01
Cluster 6
NFL Champion 2027: New England Patriots
NFL Champion 2027: New England Patriots
0x813384…d3c4
Cluster 7
What will be A.J. Brown's next team
What will be A.J. Brown's next team?: New England
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26ABROWN-NE
Cluster 8
New England vs Philadelphia Winner
New England vs Philadelphia Winner?: Philadelphia
KXMLSGAME-26MAY09NEPHI-PHI
Cluster 9
United States vs. Paraguay: United States
United States vs. Paraguay: United States
0x26c10c…dfc9
Cluster 10
EPL: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Newcastle United
EPL: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Newcastle United
0xe6ce8f…fe3e
Cluster 11
Will New York Y vs Atlanta be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series
Cluster 12
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next?: New England Revolution
0x162c28…b850
What moved the line
- Apr 28New England Revolution↑50pp0→50¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28New England Patriots↑33pp6→39¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score↑30pp19→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Philadelphia↑17pp20→37¢ · Kalshi
- May 217th Place (Relegation Survivor): Newcastle United↓17pp22→5¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.