Atlanta United FC vs. New England Revolution
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10K
7 contracts
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
964 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will New England win” vs “Will Gavin Newsom”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will New England win
Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England
KXSB-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: New England
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-NE
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New England
KXNFLAFCEAST-27-NE
Cluster 2
Will Gavin Newsom
Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?: Gavin Newsom
KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-GNEW
Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXNEWSOMRUN-28-27JAN01
Cluster 3
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel
KXCOACHONDATE-NE26-MVRA
Cluster 4
Will New York Y vs Atlanta be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series
Analysis
This 28% probability reflects market expectations that New England will defeat Atlanta in an upcoming soccer match. The current level sits between two venues, with Kalshi traders pricing New England slightly higher at 30% compared to Polymarket's 23%, suggesting modest disagreement about the matchup. The probability would likely shift based on team form leading up to kickoff, injury reports for key players, and head-to-head records. The most significant near-term catalyst is the publication of official team lineups and any last-minute roster changes, which typically occur 24-48 hours before match time. Current betting volumes are relatively modest across venues, indicating limited conviction among traders or reduced market participation at this moment.
- ›Kalshi-Polymarket gap of 7 percentage points suggests meaningful disagreement between venues that could reflect different trader bases or information sets
- ›The 28% probability implies roughly 2.6:1 odds against New England, positioning Atlanta as the favored outcome
- ›24-hour trading volumes range from low to moderate across contracts, with the championship contract showing the highest activity ($28,812), limiting the sample size for this specific matchup
- ›Recent head-to-head records, current league standings, and goal differential for both teams would mechanically influence this probability
- ›Any announcement of roster unavailability, coaching changes, or tactical shifts in the 48 hours before kickoff could cause rapid repricing
What moved the line
- Jun 20Gavin Newsom↓4pp31→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24New York Y vs Atlanta↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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