Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 59% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
59%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11K
18 contracts
Closes
Nov 8, 2026
47 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Cleveland win at least 8
Cluster 2
Will Detroit win at least 75 games this season
Will Detroit win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
KXMLBWINS-DET-26-T75
Cluster 3
Will Los Angeles D win at least 100 games this season
Will Los Angeles D win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins
KXMLBWINS-LAD-26-T100
Cluster 4
Will Milwaukee win at least 100 games this season
Will Milwaukee win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins
KXMLBWINS-MIL-26-T100
Cluster 5
Will Atlanta win at least 95 games this season
Will Atlanta win at least 95 games this season?: 95+ wins
KXMLBWINS-ATL-26-T95
Cluster 6
Will New York Y win at least 95 games this season
Will New York Y win at least 95 games this season?: 95+ wins
KXMLBWINS-NYY-26-T95
Cluster 7
Will Miami win at least 80 games this season
Will Miami win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins
KXMLBWINS-MIA-26-T80
Cluster 8
Will Washington win at least 75 games this season
Will Washington win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
KXMLBWINS-WSH-26-T75
Cluster 9
Will Tampa Bay win at least 95 games this season
Will Tampa Bay win at least 95 games this season?: 95+ wins
KXMLBWINS-TB-26-T95
Cluster 10
Will Colorado win at least 60 games this season
Will Colorado win at least 60 games this season?: 60+ wins
KXMLBWINS-COL-26-T60
Cluster 11
Will the A's win at least 65 games this season
Will the A's win at least 65 games this season?: 65+ wins
KXMLBWINS-ATH-26-T65
Cluster 12
Will Cincinnati win at least 75 games this season
Will Cincinnati win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
KXMLBWINS-CIN-26-T75
Cluster 13
Will Minnesota win at least 75 games this season
Will Minnesota win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
KXMLBWINS-MIN-26-T75
Cluster 14
Will Kansas City win at least 70 games this season
Will Kansas City win at least 70 games this season?: 70+ wins
KXMLBWINS-KC-26-T70
Cluster 15
Will Chicago C win at least 90 games this season
Will Chicago C win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins
KXMLBWINS-CHC-26-T90
Cluster 16
Will Pittsburgh win at least 80 games this season
Will Pittsburgh win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins
KXMLBWINS-PIT-26-T80
Cluster 17
Will San Diego win at least 90 games this season
Will San Diego win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins
KXMLBWINS-SD-26-T90
Analysis
This probability reflects a 40% chance that the San Diego Padres will win at least 75 games in the 2026 MLB season. At the midpoint of the season (July 19), this outcome depends on the team's current win-loss record and remaining schedule. Teams typically need to maintain roughly a .500 winning percentage or better over their remaining games to reach 75 wins. The probability suggests market participants view 75 wins as moderately unlikely—implying either the Padres are currently behind pace, face a difficult remaining schedule, or both. The main factors driving this estimate are the team's performance to date and the quality of opponents in games still to play. Resolution will occur in early October when the regular season concludes, at which point the exact win total becomes known. Until then, significant winning or losing streaks, injuries to key players, or trades could shift expectations materially.
- ›Current win-loss record through July 19 and whether it puts the team on pace for 75+ wins
- ›Strength of schedule remaining in the final 2.5 months of the season
- ›Availability and performance of starting pitching and position player depth for the second half
- ›Recent performance trend (winning or losing streak) and momentum entering the final stretch
- ›Comparison to historical Padres performance and roster composition relative to division competition
What moved the line
- Sep 1790+ wins↑55pp2→57¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1780+ wins↑49pp7→56¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1775+ wins↑39pp55→94¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1880+ wins↑36pp17→53¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17100+ wins↓28pp54→26¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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