Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
20 contracts
Closes
Nov 8, 2026
135 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will Atlanta win at least” vs “Will New York”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Atlanta win at least
Will Atlanta win at least 95 games this season?: 95+ wins
KXMLBWINS-ATL-26-T95
Will Atlanta win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins
KXMLBWINS-ATL-26-T100
Will Atlanta win at least 105 games this season?: 105+ wins
KXMLBWINS-ATL-26-T105
Will Atlanta win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins
KXMLBWINS-ATL-26-T90
Cluster 2
Will New York
Will New York Y win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins
KXMLBWINS-NYY-26-T100
Will New York M win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins
KXMLBWINS-NYM-26-T90
Will New York M win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins
KXMLBWINS-NYM-26-T80
Cluster 3
Will San Francisco win at least
Will San Francisco win at least 65 games this season?: 65+ wins
KXMLBWINS-SF-26-T65
Will San Francisco win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
KXMLBWINS-SF-26-T75
Will San Francisco win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins
KXMLBWINS-SF-26-T80
Cluster 4
Will A's win at least
Cluster 5
Will Los Angeles D win at least 1
Cluster 6
Will Baltimore win at least 80 games this season
Will Baltimore win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins
KXMLBWINS-BAL-26-T80
Cluster 7
Will Seattle win at least 90 games this season
Will Seattle win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins
KXMLBWINS-SEA-26-T90
Cluster 8
Will Pittsburgh win at least 80 games this season
Will Pittsburgh win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins
KXMLBWINS-PIT-26-T80
Cluster 9
Will Milwaukee win at least 95 games this season
Will Milwaukee win at least 95 games this season?: 95+ wins
KXMLBWINS-MIL-26-T95
Cluster 10
Will Arizona win at least 80 games this season
Will Arizona win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins
KXMLBWINS-AZ-26-T80
Cluster 11
Will Chicago WS win at least 85 games this season
Will Chicago WS win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins
KXMLBWINS-CWS-26-T85
Analysis
This contract estimates a 54% probability that the San Diego Padres will win at least 75 games during the 2026 Major League Baseball season. The midpoint probability suggests roughly even odds of reaching this threshold, which represents a below-average win total for a competitive team. Performance through early May provides the primary driver of current odds, as approximately one-sixth of the season has elapsed and team record directly constrains maximum possible wins. The remaining 110+ games will determine whether the Padres reach 75 wins, with injuries, trade deadline moves, and month-to-month consistency significantly affecting trajectory. As the season progresses through June and July, updated win totals will either increase confidence in reaching 75 wins or shift probability downward if the team falls behind pace.
- ›Current win-loss record as of May 3, 2026, and games-won pace relative to 75-win threshold
- ›Implied probability of 85+ wins (57¢) versus 75+ wins (54¢) suggests modest confidence in stronger performance
- ›Depth and availability of starting rotation and core position players compared to preseason projections
- ›Trading deadline activity (late July) and whether team makes acquisitions to improve playoff positioning
- ›Run differential and luck-adjusted metrics, which historically predict win-total sustainability better than raw record through one month
What moved the line
- Jun 2585+ wins↓20pp30→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22100+ wins↓19pp30→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1990+ wins↓14pp33→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2375+ wins↓14pp37→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2580+ wins↓14pp22→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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