Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
34%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$16K
16 contracts
Closes
Nov 8, 2026
91 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will Boston win at least” vs “Will Los Angeles”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Boston win at least
Cluster 2
Will Los Angeles
Will Los Angeles D win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins
KXMLBWINS-LAD-26-T100
Will Los Angeles A win at least 65 games this season?: 65+ wins
KXMLBWINS-LAA-26-T65
Will Los Angeles D win at least 95 games this season?: 95+ wins
KXMLBWINS-LAD-26-T95
Cluster 3
Will Seattle win at least 8
Cluster 4
Will Atlanta win at least
Cluster 5
Will New York M win at least
Cluster 6
Will the A's win at least 65 games this season
Will the A's win at least 65 games this season?: 65+ wins
KXMLBWINS-ATH-26-T65
Cluster 7
Will Arizona win at least 85 games this season
Will Arizona win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins
KXMLBWINS-AZ-26-T85
Cluster 8
Will Milwaukee win at least 100 games this season
Will Milwaukee win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins
KXMLBWINS-MIL-26-T100
Cluster 9
Will Colorado win at least 65 games this season
Will Colorado win at least 65 games this season?: 65+ wins
KXMLBWINS-COL-26-T65
Analysis
This probability reflects a 40% chance that the San Diego Padres will win at least 75 games in the 2026 MLB season. At the midpoint of the season (July 19), this outcome depends on the team's current win-loss record and remaining schedule. Teams typically need to maintain roughly a .500 winning percentage or better over their remaining games to reach 75 wins. The probability suggests market participants view 75 wins as moderately unlikely—implying either the Padres are currently behind pace, face a difficult remaining schedule, or both. The main factors driving this estimate are the team's performance to date and the quality of opponents in games still to play. Resolution will occur in early October when the regular season concludes, at which point the exact win total becomes known. Until then, significant winning or losing streaks, injuries to key players, or trades could shift expectations materially.
- ›Current win-loss record through July 19 and whether it puts the team on pace for 75+ wins
- ›Strength of schedule remaining in the final 2.5 months of the season
- ›Availability and performance of starting pitching and position player depth for the second half
- ›Recent performance trend (winning or losing streak) and momentum entering the final stretch
- ›Comparison to historical Padres performance and roster composition relative to division competition
What moved the line
- Aug 275+ wins↓18pp29→11¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 890+ wins↑15pp50→65¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 595+ wins↓13pp95→82¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5100+ wins↓12pp62→50¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 895+ wins↓12pp72→60¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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