FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF
Leader sits at 62% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
FC Midtjylland
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
Draw (FC Midtjylland vs. Vib
Spread
41pp
contested
24h volume
$6
thin orderbook
Closes
May 4, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF
Analysis
This 35% probability reflects market expectations that FC Midtjylland will win an upcoming match against Viborg FF. The probability sits at the intersection of two major betting venues with a modest 6-percentage-point gap, suggesting moderate disagreement about Midtjylland's chances. Recent form, head-to-head records, and squad composition typically drive such match probabilities in Danish football. The actual match outcome will resolve this uncertainty, making pre-match team news and lineup confirmations the primary catalysts that could shift the probability higher or lower before kickoff.
- ›Polymarket contracts price Midtjylland's win probability at approximately 36%, while Kalshi averages 30%, indicating venue-level divergence in assessment
- ›The spread contract (-2.5 for Viborg) trading at 5¢ suggests low confidence in Viborg covering, implying most liquidity favors closer margins or Midtjylland outright
- ›Kalshi's Midtjylland winner contract at 59¢ reflects majority expectation of a Midtjylland victory, contradicting the 35% aggregate figure and signaling potential pricing inconsistency
- ›Total 24-hour volume concentrates heavily on the Midtjylland winner Kalshi contract ($152), indicating thin liquidity on Viborg-favorable outcomes across venues
- ›Very low volume on long-tailed contracts (O/U 3.5, direct Viborg at Polymarket) suggests limited market depth for correlated outcomes
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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