SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 8 outcomes8 contractsKalshirefreshed 7 min agoCloses May 20, 2026 · 16d

What will the announcers say during Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal UFC Fight

Leader sits at 97% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

97%

Extra Inning

runner-up 97¢leader 97¢

Outcomes

8

winner-take-all

Runner-up

97¢

Bullpen

Spread

0pp

contested

24h volume

$8K

modest

Closes

May 20, 2026

16 days

Venue

Kalshi

8 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayExtra Inning: 76% (4 days, 4 points)Extra Inning: 76% on 2026-05-03Bullpen: 93% on 2026-05-03MVP: 74% (4 days, 4 points)MVP: 74% on 2026-05-03
Extra Inning76¢Bullpen93¢MVP74¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 4d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • May 1Double Play51pp455¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3MVP39pp434¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3Extra Inning37pp3976¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 30MVP34pp640¢ · Kalshi
  • May 1Grand Slam31pp1647¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.