Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC
Leader sits at 46% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Gangwon FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Draw (Gangwon FC vs. Pohang
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$39
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Gangwon FC will win an upcoming match against Pohang Steelers FC. At 45%, Gangwon is favored but faces meaningful competition, with a runner-up outcome priced at 30%. The pricing reflects uncertainty typical of K League matchups where recent form, team strength, and home-field advantage interact unpredictably. Resolution depends on the match outcome on its scheduled date. Secondary markets suggest low expected goal totals, with under 1.5 goals trading highest at 66¢, indicating belief in a low-scoring contest. Current trading volume is minimal across all contracts, suggesting limited recent market activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads.
- ›Gangwon FC win probability of 45% implies roughly even odds against Pohang despite being the listed favorite, leaving significant probability mass for draws and Pohang victory
- ›Under 1.5 goals is priced highest at 66¢, contradicting typical K League scoring patterns and suggesting either defensive form or incomplete match information in the market
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all five contracts indicates thin liquidity and potentially stale pricing rather than active current market consensus
- ›Match outcome resolution is binary and verifiable, making this resolvable without subjective interpretation once the fixture concludes
- ›Spread market pricing (Gangwon -2.5 at 9¢) implies very low probability of dominant Gangwon victory, suggesting market expects either competitive balance or upset risk
What moved the line
- May 2Pohang Steelers FC↓6pp37→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Gangwon FC↑4pp41→45¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.