Ghana vs. Panama
Leader sits at 46% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ghana
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
Draw (Ghana vs. Panama)
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$11
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
44 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Ghana vs. Panama
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Ghana wins in a direct matchup against Panama, currently priced at 35% across major prediction markets. The estimate reflects Ghana's recent tournament performance and head-to-head dynamics, though the 4 percentage-point gap between Polymarket and Kalshi suggests some disagreement about underlying strength. Ghana appears in multiple tournament contracts across different venues, with varying implied odds depending on the broader competition structure. The key driver would be the timing and format of any scheduled Ghana-Panama fixture, as well as confirmation of both teams' tournament participation and current roster status. Resolution hinges on an actual match result or official confirmation that such a match will not occur within the prediction window.
- ›Ghana-specific contract on Kalshi trades 5-9 percentage points higher (47¢ and 45¢) than broader tournament contracts (22¢-28¢), suggesting isolated Ghana strength or different event interpretations across contracts
- ›Polymarket shows notably higher aggregate probability (35%) than Kalshi (31%), a 4-point divergence that may reflect different participant bases or contract designs
- ›Volume concentration on Kalshi's direct winner contract ($20 24h) versus near-zero volume elsewhere indicates retail liquidity clustered on the simplest two-team format
- ›Multiple Ghana contracts exist across different tournament contexts (vs Panama, vs Croatia, vs England), suggesting either a group-stage scenario or repeated qualifying rounds that affect Ghana's path probability
- ›No recent 24-hour volume on the direct matchup contract on Polymarket despite being the primary venue for this event class, indicating stale pricing or low market confidence
What moved the line
- May 2Draw (Ghana vs. Panama)↓4pp29→25¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.