Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
41%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Top contract
29¢
$0 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC” vs “Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC
Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x9129c6…db55
Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC: Reilac Shiga
0x6e16ef…1cf2
Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC - More Markets: Renofa Yamaguchi FC (-1.5)
0xd7af95…fee6
Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xae5a2b…2d40
Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x303510…3c8a
Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC - More Markets: Reilac Shiga (-2.5)
0xdd3092…9e74
Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x035363…ec63
Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x32de6b…ada9
Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC - More Markets: Reilac Shiga (-1.5)
0x0f5665…f01a
Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC - More Markets: Renofa Yamaguchi FC (-2.5)
0xaaeaf2…2a40
Cluster 2
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xb972b7…e015
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto: Giravanz Kitakyūshū
0x293b9d…3984
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x59b299…2b8a
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-2.5)
0x218550…9d13
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x9e0a79…5073
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0a8c9d…15b7
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x1b2ae8…f42c
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-1.5)
0x226e5a…44b2
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Roasso Kumamoto (-2.5)
0x13917b…2bc5
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Roasso Kumamoto (-1.5)
0x3e73dd…b26f
What moved the line
- May 3Roasso Kumamoto (-1.5)↑5pp33→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Reilac Shiga (-2.5)↑4pp32→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Renofa Yamaguchi FC (-2.5)↑3pp35→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Roasso Kumamoto (-2.5)↑3pp34→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Renofa Yamaguchi FC (-1.5)↑3pp33→36¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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