Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto
Leader sits at 47% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Giravanz Kitakyūshū
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
Roasso Kumamoto
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto: Giravanz Kitakyūshū
0x293b9d…3984
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto: Roasso Kumamoto
0xb333ae…847a
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto: Draw (Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto)
0xeb0a6c…e3e4
Analysis
This 61% probability reflects market pricing on whether the match between Giravanz Kitakyūshū and Roasso Kumamoto will see more than 1.5 total goals scored. The relatively high threshold suggests traders expect a moderately open contest; the gap between the O/U 1.5 contract (61¢) and Both Teams to Score (51¢) indicates some uncertainty about goal distribution. Resolution depends on the match outcome, scheduled for 2026-05-03. The contracts priced around break-even points—Giravanz (-1.5) at 38¢ and Roasso (-2.5) at 34¢—suggest market participants see a competitive fixture without a clear dominant outcome favoring either team by 2+ goals. Liquidity is minimal across all contracts, reflecting low trading volume and potentially wide bid-ask spreads.
- ›Both Teams to Score contract trades 10 percentage points lower than O/U 1.5, suggesting the market prices a meaningful likelihood of 2+ goals without both teams scoring (e.g., 2-0 outcomes)
- ›Giravanz (-1.5) trades at 38¢ versus Roasso (-2.5) at 34¢, indicating asymmetric win-by-margin expectations favoring Giravanz by a small margin
- ›Zero 24-hour volume across all contracts indicates minimal recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect late-breaking information
- ›J-League 2 form, recent head-to-head records, and team defensive records directly determine whether matches typically exceed 1.5-goal totals
- ›Match occurs on 2026-05-03; weather conditions, team absences, or tactical shifts announced before kickoff could cause rapid repricing
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 15 min ago.