Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets
Leader sits at 65% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 51%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
51¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-1.5)
0x226e5a…44b2
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x1b2ae8…f42c
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xb972b7…e015
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x9e0a79…5073
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x59b299…2b8a
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0a8c9d…15b7
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Roasso Kumamoto (-2.5)
0x13917b…2bc5
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-2.5)
0x218550…9d13
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Roasso Kumamoto (-1.5)
0x3e73dd…b26f
Analysis
This market reflects the estimated probability that Giravanz Kitakyūshū will win their match against Roasso Kumamoto. The current 51% probability, derived from Polymarket contracts, suggests a lean toward Giravanz but with substantial uncertainty. The probability is primarily shaped by recent form, head-to-head history, and squad availability. The match itself—scheduled as a single knockout or league contest—represents the primary catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty. Volume has been moderate across related markets, indicating reasonable but not exceptional liquidity for this fixture. Shifts in this probability will likely reflect team news, injury updates, or changes in betting positioning in the days leading to kickoff.
- ›Giravanz is priced at 51% to win, indicating marginal favoritism rather than strong consensus confidence
- ›The runner-up outcome sits at 38%, suggesting a distributed probability landscape across multiple potential results
- ›Polymarket aggregation across 5 contracts shows this reflects genuine trading activity rather than a single outlier position
- ›Related football markets on the platform show typical volume patterns for mid-tier league fixtures
- ›The probability will be resolved by match outcome, making team form, injuries, and pre-match developments concrete price drivers
What moved the line
- May 3Roasso Kumamoto (-1.5)↑5pp33→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Roasso Kumamoto (-2.5)↑3pp34→37¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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