GV CD San José vs. Club Bolívar
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 33%, Polymarket at 36% — a 3pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
36%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
3pp
modest gap
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
20 contracts
Closes
May 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 33¢ · Polymarket 36¢ · 3pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (33¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (36¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
7 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar” vs “Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar: Deportivo La Guaira FC
0xc1b5b2…4113
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x918a9b…2eb7
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x235d60…e322
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar: Draw (Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar)
0x6baef5…32db
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: Club Bolívar (-2.5)
0x0a4cf4…a0fc
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xbd91ad…e563
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x751636…dd07
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: Deportivo La Guaira FC (-1.5)
0xf2f098…756f
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: Club Bolívar (-1.5)
0xf9ba9e…120c
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: Deportivo La Guaira FC (-2.5)
0x457f50…fc0a
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x7dbbcc…5def
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar: Club Bolívar
0x866f7d…e26f
Cluster 2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC
Cluster 3
Will Otakar Esports win the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports Valorant match
Cluster 4
Will Robelis Despaigne win the Junior Dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne UFC fight in Round 1: Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1
Cluster 5
Club Always Ready vs. CA Lanús: CA Lanús
Club Always Ready vs. CA Lanús: CA Lanús
0x4eec59…304b
Cluster 6
Will either competitor win the Junior Dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne fight by decision or the fight result in a draw/no contest: Decision / Draw / No Contest
Cluster 7
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Wuhan San Zhen FC
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Wuhan San Zhen FC
0x13b64b…4305
What moved the line
- May 3Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1↓21pp42→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Otakar Esports↑8pp5→13¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.