Will Hyperliquid's HIP-4 upgrade go live on mainnet by ___
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14K
2 contracts
Top contract
3¢
$11K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Who will host Saturday Night Live Season 51” vs “Will 151st Kentucky Derby win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Live Sports Special: Non-Championship Event”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Who will host Saturday Night Live Season 51
Who will host Saturday Night Live Season 51?: Anne Hathaway
KXSNLHOST-26-ANN
Cluster 2
Will 151st Kentucky Derby win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Live Sports Special: Non-Championship Event
What moved the line
- May 2Non-Championship Event?: 151st Kentucky Derby↑14pp10→24¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Non-Championship Event?: 151st Kentucky Derby↑6pp24→30¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (19% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.