Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista
Leader sits at 38% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
SC Corinthians Paulista
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Independiente Santa Fe
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 7, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: Independiente Santa Fe
0xcf1ee3…1f60
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: SC Corinthians Paulista
0xb8cbca…69e4
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: Draw (Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista)
0x13d4e1…06b7
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Independiente Santa Fe will win their match against SC Corinthians Paulista. At 33%, the market currently favors Corinthians, with a 30% probability assigned to a draw. The outcome depends heavily on recent form and head-to-head dynamics between Colombian and Brazilian competition styles. Santa Fe would need to overcome Corinthians' typical advantages in continental play, while the draw scenario reflects genuine uncertainty about tactical matchups. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty through direct competition, with relative team strength, home-field considerations (if applicable), and lineup health being the primary determinants of the final result.
- ›Independiente Santa Fe's recent performance record and goal-scoring efficiency in their domestic competition
- ›SC Corinthians Paulista's current form and defensive stability in recent matches
- ›Historical head-to-head record and performance patterns in similar continental or friendly matchups between Colombian and Brazilian clubs
- ›Availability of key players and recent injury reports for both squads
- ›The match venue and any established home-field advantage patterns for either team
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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