Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
41%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+23pp
38h ago
24h volume
$2K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
57 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
0x9049d9…ee96
Analysis
This contract estimates an 18% probability that Israeli military forces will cross the Litani River, which forms the northern border between Israel and Lebanon, by June 30, 2026. The probability reflects recent geopolitical tensions and military positioning in the region, though a significant gap exists between venue assessments—Polymarket prices the event 28 percentage points higher at 44%, suggesting disagreement about escalation likelihood. Key drivers include the current state of Israeli-Hezbollah tensions, diplomatic negotiations underway, and statements from Israeli military leadership regarding operational objectives. The primary catalyst for resolution will be any confirmed military movement across the river or official announcements of operation scope, which could occur without warning or through planned operations dependent on security assessments.
- ›Kalshi's lower pricing (16% average) versus Polymarket's higher assessment (44%) suggests different market interpretations of available intelligence on Israeli operational intentions
- ›Current Israeli military positioning and publicly stated strategic goals regarding northern border security and Hezbollah capability reduction
- ›Ongoing diplomatic efforts, ceasefire negotiations, or international pressure that could constrain or enable military operations through June 30
- ›Historical patterns of Israeli military operations in Lebanon and stated redlines from both Israeli and Lebanese leadership regarding cross-border incursions
- ›Timing and intensity of any cross-border military incidents between now and the contract expiration that could signal escalation trajectory
What moved the line
- Apr 26Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?↑3pp41→44¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?↓3pp43→40¢ · Polymarket
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Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (41% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.