Ōita Trinita vs. Roasso Kumamoto
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
41%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Top contract
52¢
$0 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto” vs “Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x59b299…2b8a
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0a8c9d…15b7
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto: Giravanz Kitakyūshū
0x293b9d…3984
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto: Roasso Kumamoto
0xb333ae…847a
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto: Draw (Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto)
0xeb0a6c…e3e4
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-2.5)
0x218550…9d13
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x9e0a79…5073
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x1b2ae8…f42c
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Roasso Kumamoto (-2.5)
0x13917b…2bc5
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-1.5)
0x226e5a…44b2
Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xb972b7…e015
Cluster 2
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x439e35…82f7
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita: Draw (Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita)
0xf07ff2…3a60
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita: Kagoshima United FC
0x915eb3…ea84
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xe0cdd9…7a6d
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Kagoshima United FC (-1.5)
0x9d9d39…1252
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xc65258…6bb8
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc0ca93…26cd
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Ōita Trinita (-1.5)
0x88fc7b…35d4
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x58a705…db3a
What moved the line
- May 3Ōita Trinita (-1.5)↑5pp33→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Roasso Kumamoto (-2.5)↑3pp34→37¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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