J2 League
Leader sits at 49% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Kataller Toyama
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
Winner: Jubilo Iwata
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 29, 2028
757 days
Venue
Polymarket
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
J2 League: Winner
J2 League: Winner: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
0x8df670…1573
J2 League: Winner: Tegevajaro Miyazaki
0x9cb77c…1765
J2 League: Winner: Tokushima Vortis
0x75b3a7…70d8
J2 League: Winner: Fujieda MYFC
0x44474b…b236
J2 League: Winner: Jubilo Iwata
0xb14cf7…7cd0
J2 League: Winner: Kataller Toyama
0xd84376…ffd4
J2 League: Winner: Albirex Niigata
0xc8f1e2…2365
J2 League: Winner: Ventforet Kofu
0x7fcbda…1650
J2 League: Winner: Shonan Bellmare
0xf96a9e…7c3c
J2 League: Winner: RB Omiya Ardija
0xa2a56d…26f9
J2 League: Winner: Iwaki FC
0x8d2e66…0e05
J2 League: Winner: Blaublitz Akita
0xec0c46…a8cc
J2 League: Winner: Vegalta Sendai
0xadab50…c03e
Analysis
This represents the market's current assessment that a specific outcome in the J2 League competition will occur, with the leading contract priced at 50%. The probability reflects uncertainty about league outcomes occurring in the 2026 season, with trading activity concentrated across related European football competitions—particularly English Premier League and UEFA Champions League markets. Key drivers include team form trajectories, injury status of key players, and transfer activity during off-season windows. The single largest catalyst for resolving uncertainty will be the start of the 2026-2027 season schedule and initial match results, which typically commence in August 2026. Until then, market prices will respond to pre-season fixtures, squad announcements, and betting market adjustments based on updated odds from traditional sportsbooks.
- ›Current contract leadership at 50% reflects genuine two-way uncertainty rather than strong consensus directionally
- ›High 24-hour trading volumes ($44k-$79k) across Premier League and Champions League contracts indicate active hedging and portfolio positioning
- ›J2 League markets show significantly lower volume relative to top-tier European competitions, suggesting thinner liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads
- ›Pre-season friendlies and squad composition announcements between May-August 2026 will likely shift probabilities before official season start
- ›Traditional sportsbook odds and European football betting markets serve as external price discovery mechanisms affecting Polymarket and Kalshi contract valuations
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.