SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 10 outcomes10 contractsKalshirefreshed 7 min agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 3d

Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices

Leader sits at 52% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 43%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

52%

U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4.15ㅤ?: Above 4.15ㅤ

runner-up 43¢leader 52¢

Outcomes

10

winner-take-all

Runner-up

43¢

U.S. Gulf Coast weekly avera

Spread

9pp

contested

24h volume

$1K

modest

Closes

May 6, 2026

3 days

Venue

Kalshi

10 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayU.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4.15ㅤ?: Above 4.15ㅤ: 69% (5 days, 5 points)U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4.15ㅤ?: Above 4.15ㅤ: 69% on 2026-05-03U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 3.80ㅤ?: Above 3.80ㅤ: 43% (5 days, 5 points)U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 3.80ㅤ?: Above 3.80ㅤ: 43% on 2026-05-03U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 3.95ㅤ?: Above 3.95ㅤ: 36% (5 days, 5 points)U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 3.95ㅤ?: Above 3.95ㅤ: 36% on 2026-05-03
U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4.15ㅤ?: Above 4.15ㅤ69¢U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 3.80ㅤ?: Above 3.80ㅤ43¢U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 3.95ㅤ?: Above 3.95ㅤ36¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 5d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above

10 contracts$1K
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4.20ㅤ?: Above 4.20ㅤ

KXJETFUEL-26MAY06-T4.20

9¢+3pp$699K

Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4.15ㅤ?: Above 4.15ㅤ

KXJETFUEL-26MAY06-T4.15

52¢+9pp$555K

Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4.05ㅤ?: Above 4.05ㅤ

KXJETFUEL-26MAY06-T4.05

9¢+12pp$91K

Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4.10ㅤ?: Above 4.10ㅤ

KXJETFUEL-26MAY06-T4.10

9¢3pp$1K

Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4.25ㅤ?: Above 4.25ㅤ

KXJETFUEL-26MAY06-T4.25

3¢±0$1K

Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4.00ㅤ?: Above 4.00ㅤ

KXJETFUEL-26MAY06-T4.00

4¢10pp$0K

Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 3.95ㅤ?: Above 3.95ㅤ

KXJETFUEL-26MAY06-T3.95

29¢+5pp$0K

Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 3.90ㅤ?: Above 3.90ㅤ

KXJETFUEL-26MAY06-T3.90

14¢5pp$0K

Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 3.85ㅤ?: Above 3.85ㅤ

KXJETFUEL-26MAY06-T3.85

13¢10pp$0K

Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 3.80ㅤ?: Above 3.80ㅤ

KXJETFUEL-26MAY06-T3.80

43¢1pp$0K

What moved the line

  • Apr 30U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 3.85ㅤ?: Above 3.85ㅤ53pp8936¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 30U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 3.95ㅤ?: Above 3.95ㅤ49pp8132¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 30U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 3.90ㅤ?: Above 3.90ㅤ48pp8739¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 30U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4.00ㅤ?: Above 4.00ㅤ40pp7434¢ · Kalshi
  • May 2U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4.15ㅤ?: Above 4.15ㅤ28pp3260¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.