Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock
Leader sits at 57% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kashima Antlers
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Draw (Kashima Antlers vs. FC
Spread
32pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock
Analysis
This represents the leading market estimate that Kashima Antlers will win their upcoming match against FC Mito Holly Hock at 44%, with FC Mito Holly Hock's probability at 34% (and a draw implied at roughly 22%). The probability reflects Kashima Antlers' stronger historical standing in J-League Division 2, though the relatively modest lead suggests meaningful uncertainty about the outcome. Resolution depends entirely on the match result, which will occur on a scheduled date in the J-League calendar. Key factors traders are weighing include current league standings and recent form of both clubs, head-to-head historical records, injury status and team roster composition, home-field advantage if applicable, and recent scoring patterns evident in the related over/under contracts (47¢ on O/U 2.5 suggests moderate scoring expectations). The secondary contracts show low volume and tight spreads, indicating limited recent trading activity around this fixture.
- ›Kashima Antlers hold a higher implied win probability (44%) compared to FC Mito Holly Hock (34%), consistent with their stronger J-League Division 2 historical position
- ›Related over/under markets price O/U 2.5 at 47¢, suggesting moderate goal expectations that would factor into match dynamics and scoring risk
- ›Both Teams to Score market at 49¢ indicates roughly even odds of both clubs scoring, relevant to match structure and defensive vulnerability
- ›FC Mito Holly Hock spread contracts (−1.5 and −2.5) trade at 33¢ and 34¢ respectively, showing minimal trader interest in betting on significant Mito victory margins
- ›Near-zero 24-hour volume across all related contracts indicates sparse recent market activity, reducing confidence in probability estimates
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.