Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets
Leader sits at 72% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 46%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
46¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)
0xe7a530…9059
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x2f00d8…2029
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xd385a3…17a7
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x081084…5e13
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x0020fd…fde4
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x9a04eb…c058
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5)
0x317f8e…e834
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: Kashima Antlers (-2.5)
0x6b096c…3965
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)
0x016905…b20d
Analysis
This 49% probability reflects market expectations that both Kashima Antlers and FC Mito Holly Hock will score in their upcoming match. The pricing suggests near-even odds but slightly favors the scenario where both teams find the net. Market participants are likely weighing the offensive capabilities of each team against their defensive records in Japan's professional leagues. Supporting contracts show relatively low total-goals expectations (under 2.5 and 3.5 totals priced at 47¢ and 37¢ respectively), which partly constrains the both-teams-to-score probability. The outcome will depend on team lineups, recent form, and tactical approach on match day. Historically, both-teams-to-score markets reflect underlying defensive vulnerabilities and offensive consistency rather than random occurrence.
- ›Kashima Antlers' recent defensive record and goals conceded per match compared to FC Mito Holly Hock's offensive output
- ›FC Mito Holly Hock's defensive solidity and goals conceded per match versus Kashima Antlers' goal-scoring consistency
- ›The market's low pricing on over 2.5 total goals (47¢) suggests expectation of a lower-scoring match, which inversely constrains both-teams-to-score likelihood
- ›Team news, injuries, or absences among key attacking or defensive personnel announced closer to match day
- ›Historical head-to-head results and goal patterns between these specific opponents in recent seasons
What moved the line
- May 3Kashima Antlers (-2.5)↑4pp32→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 3FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5)↑3pp34→37¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.