SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 10 min agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 2d23pp · 10h

Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets

Leader sits at 72% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 46%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

72%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 46¢leader 72¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

46¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

26pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 6, 2026

2 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 2.5: 46% on 2026-05-03Both Teams to Score: 51% on 2026-05-03Kashima Antlers (-1.5): 40% on 2026-05-03
O/U 2.546¢Both Teams to Score51¢Kashima Antlers (-1.5)40¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 1d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This 49% probability reflects market expectations that both Kashima Antlers and FC Mito Holly Hock will score in their upcoming match. The pricing suggests near-even odds but slightly favors the scenario where both teams find the net. Market participants are likely weighing the offensive capabilities of each team against their defensive records in Japan's professional leagues. Supporting contracts show relatively low total-goals expectations (under 2.5 and 3.5 totals priced at 47¢ and 37¢ respectively), which partly constrains the both-teams-to-score probability. The outcome will depend on team lineups, recent form, and tactical approach on match day. Historically, both-teams-to-score markets reflect underlying defensive vulnerabilities and offensive consistency rather than random occurrence.

  • Kashima Antlers' recent defensive record and goals conceded per match compared to FC Mito Holly Hock's offensive output
  • FC Mito Holly Hock's defensive solidity and goals conceded per match versus Kashima Antlers' goal-scoring consistency
  • The market's low pricing on over 2.5 total goals (47¢) suggests expectation of a lower-scoring match, which inversely constrains both-teams-to-score likelihood
  • Team news, injuries, or absences among key attacking or defensive personnel announced closer to match day
  • Historical head-to-head results and goal patterns between these specific opponents in recent seasons

What moved the line

  • May 3Kashima Antlers (-2.5)4pp3236¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5)3pp3437¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.