Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds
Leader sits at 48% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kashiwa Reysol
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Draw (Kashiwa Reysol vs. Ura
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds
Analysis
This 44% probability indicates the prediction market currently favors Urawa Red Diamonds to win over Kashiwa Reysol, though the market remains relatively unsettled with meaningful probability mass on other outcomes. The leading probability reflects recent form, squad composition, and home-field considerations for a J-League match. The main drivers of this level are comparative recent performance metrics and injury status of key players on both sides; movements would likely follow team news or updated lineups closer to kickoff. The match itself serves as the primary resolution event—the scheduled fixture will definitively settle the outcome, eliminating all uncertainty around this specific three-way bet. Market pricing can shift based on late-breaking roster changes, weather conditions, or updated betting syndicate intelligence from other venues in the hours before the final whistle.
- ›Recent league standing and goal differential for both Kashiwa Reysol and Urawa Red Diamonds in the current J-League season
- ›Injury or suspension status of key attacking or defensive players for either team announced before match day
- ›Head-to-head historical record and results from the most recent fixtures between these two clubs
- ›Home venue advantage factors (pitch conditions, crowd dynamics, travel distance if applicable)
- ›Market volume concentration on Polymarket—the $0 24h volume on the featured contract indicates minimal recent activity, suggesting the 44% may reflect stale or thin pricing
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.