Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki
Leader sits at 50% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kataller Toyama
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
Kamatamare Sanuki
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki
Analysis
This market reflects a 49% probability that Kataller Toyama will defeat Kamatamare Sanuki in an upcoming match. The probability suggests a slight lean toward Kataller despite meaningful uncertainty—the runner-up holds 41% probability, indicating competitive positioning. Recent form, head-to-head records, and home/away advantage typically move such probabilities. The match itself serves as the resolution event; outcomes will be determined by final score. Market depth is thin (zero 24-hour volume across contracts), which means prices may shift substantially on limited trading activity. Bettors should note the over/under contracts clustering around 1.5 to 3.5 goals, suggesting expectation of a relatively low-scoring fixture. These markets remain sensitive to injury reports, lineup confirmations, and weather conditions closer to kickoff.
- ›Kataller Toyama holds a 49% win probability versus Kamatamare Sanuki's 41%, with draw probability implied at ~10%, indicating competitive teams without dominant favoritism
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all contracts suggests illiquid market conditions where small position sizes could move prices meaningfully
- ›Over/under markets clustering at 1.5 and 3.5 goals indicate market expectation of low-scoring play, constraining win probability scenarios
- ›Polymarket aggregates only 3 contracts with limited historical depth, reducing confidence in probability stability relative to high-volume markets
- ›The match outcome depends on standard soccer variables: relative team form, head-to-head records, home-field advantage, and day-of lineup/injury status
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.