Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy
Leader sits at 48% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kawasaki Frontale
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Draw (Kawasaki Frontale vs.
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment that Kawasaki Frontale has a 41% chance of winning their upcoming match against Tōkyō Verdy, based on limited trading activity of $10 in 24-hour volume. The probability reflects underlying expectations about team form, head-to-head history, and current league position in Japan's top division. Market odds for Verdy at -1.5 goals (28 cents) suggest modest underdog positioning for Frontale. Resolution depends entirely on the match outcome, which typically occurs within scheduled J-League fixture windows. The thin trading volume means this probability could shift meaningfully with modest order flow, as the contract has not attracted deep liquidity. Shifts would likely follow team news, injury updates, or pre-match momentum indicators that traders believe signal improved or diminished winning chances for either side.
- ›Current Polymarket pricing shows Frontale at 41% vs. Verdy at 32% (runner-up), indicating relative confidence in Frontale despite low absolute probability
- ›The -1.5 handicap contract on Verdy trades at 28 cents, implying roughly 28% implied probability and suggesting Verdy favored in goal-differential markets
- ›Trading volume of only $10 in 24 hours indicates minimal liquidity, making the 41% potentially sensitive to single larger trades or new information
- ›Match outcome is binary with no partial resolution—the fixture result will either confirm or contradict current market positioning completely
- ›J-League seasonal context including both teams' recent form, head-to-head record, and standings position would inform whether 41% reflects value or mispricing relative to historical matchup frequency
What moved the line
- May 3Tōkyō Verdy↓4pp33→29¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.