Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets
Leader sits at 78% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 53%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
53¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
25pp
contested
24h volume
$315
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)
0xeacd4b…9c9e
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x265119…772e
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd79dfe…f845
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x691544…6208
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x821567…77e8
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)
0x45e030…a07f
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)
0x069e2b…e280
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5)
0x1da10f…ed87
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x796d0b…4310
Analysis
This 51% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Liaoning Tieren FC will win their match against Chengdu Rongcheng FC. The aggregate market shows meaningful disagreement, with a competing position at 33%, suggesting genuine uncertainty about the outcome. Disparities across linked contracts—such as Chengdu trading at 61¢ for an outright win versus Liaoning at 19¢—indicate traders are pricing different match scenarios and goal-margin outcomes differently. The resolution will occur when the fixture is played, determined by final match result. Recent volume ($327–$390 per contract in 24 hours) suggests active pricing but limited liquidity concentration, meaning individual large positions can influence quoted probabilities.
- ›Liaoning Tieren FC win contract trading at 19¢ on Polymarket vs. Chengdu win at 61¢ suggests market leans toward Chengdu, contradicting the 51% headline on the Liaoning spread contract
- ›Volume distribution across contracts ($265–$390 per contract daily) indicates fragmented liquidity; prices may not reflect consensus if one contract has outsized position concentration
- ›The 51% leader position reflects a specific spread market (Liaoning -2.5); outright win probabilities differ materially, suggesting outcome uncertainty extends to goal margin, not just match winner
- ›Fixture date and team injury/lineup status at match time will be primary resolution drivers; current probabilities are static snapshots without time-to-event weighting
- ›Multi-outcome structure means the 51% reflects one specific contract's last-trade price, not an arithmetic average—runner-up at 33% indicates material disagreement on true probability
What moved the line
- May 2Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)↓10pp32→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓6pp12→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓5pp17→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 2.5↓3pp56→53¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5)↓3pp15→12¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.