Liga Nacional de Básquetbol
Leader sits at 49% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Independiente de Oliva
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
Winner: Instituto de Córdoba
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 16, 2026
12 days
Venue
Polymarket
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Independiente de Oliva
0x9170da…4726
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Platense
0x481c65…ca82
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Obras Basket
0x7656f7…ba4a
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Oberá Tennis Club
0x7bf48a…a29a
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: San Martín de Corrientes
0x3eee87…d874
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Racing de Chivilcoy
0xbf45c7…4d88
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Quimsa de Santiago del Estero
0xf7ecdf…11e0
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Gimnasia y Esgrima de Comodoro Rivadavia
0x310d19…7247
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Ferro Carril Oeste
0x14f5c0…6605
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: San Lorenzo
0x396342…6604
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Regatas Corrientes
0x9ccdc8…1cf0
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Peñarol de Mar del Plata
0xa51fd7…d1ee
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Olímpico de La Banda
0x236dda…34ef
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: La Unión de Formosa
0xc2bb54…4dea
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Boca Juniors
0x431dd5…aa35
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Unión de Santa Fe
0xeacf0f…6c9d
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Instituto de Córdoba
0x3d992a…e565
Analysis
This probability represents the current market estimate that Boca Juniors will win the Liga Nacional de Básquetbol championship. The 50% price reflects deep uncertainty among traders, likely driven by competitive balance within the league and potentially limited recent performance data or incomplete season context as of May 2026. The championship outcome will be determined by season-end tournament results, with resolution depending on playoff performance and final standings. Key factors include Boca Juniors' current win-loss record relative to competitors, their historical championship frequency, roster changes or injuries affecting performance, head-to-head records against other top contenders, and playoff format structure that might favor certain team profiles.
- ›Boca Juniors' current position in league standings and recent game outcomes
- ›Trading volume and contract liquidity across the 17 competing teams—zero volume on most contracts suggests limited new information or market conviction
- ›Playoff bracket structure and seeding implications that could advantage or disadvantage Boca relative to other contenders
- ›Roster availability and injury status of key Boca players versus primary competitors
- ›Historical championship frequency and performance patterns of Boca versus the runner-up team currently priced at 50%
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.