SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 17 outcomes17 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 min agoCloses May 16, 2026 · 12d1pp · 10h

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol

Leader sits at 49% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

49%

Winner: Independiente de Oliva

runner-up 49¢leader 49¢

Outcomes

17

winner-take-all

Runner-up

49¢

Winner: Instituto de Córdoba

Spread

0pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 16, 2026

12 days

Venue

Polymarket

17 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayWinner: Independiente de Oliva: 49% (7 days, 6 points)Winner: Independiente de Oliva: 49% on 2026-05-03Winner: Instituto de Córdoba: 50% (7 days, 6 points)Winner: Instituto de Córdoba: 50% on 2026-05-03Winner: Unión de Santa Fe: 49% (7 days, 7 points)Winner: Unión de Santa Fe: 49% on 2026-05-03
Winner: Independiente de Oliva49¢Winner: Instituto de Córdoba50¢Winner: Unión de Santa Fe49¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 7d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner

17 contracts$0
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Independiente de Oliva

0x9170da…4726

49¢±0$0P

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Platense

0x481c65…ca82

49¢+1pp$0P

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Obras Basket

0x7656f7…ba4a

49¢+1pp$0P

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Oberá Tennis Club

0x7bf48a…a29a

49¢+1pp$0P

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: San Martín de Corrientes

0x3eee87…d874

49¢+1pp$0P

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Racing de Chivilcoy

0xbf45c7…4d88

49¢+1pp$0P

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Quimsa de Santiago del Estero

0xf7ecdf…11e0

49¢+1pp$0P

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Gimnasia y Esgrima de Comodoro Rivadavia

0x310d19…7247

49¢1pp$0P

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Ferro Carril Oeste

0x14f5c0…6605

49¢+1pp$0P

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: San Lorenzo

0x396342…6604

49¢+1pp$0P

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Regatas Corrientes

0x9ccdc8…1cf0

49¢±0$0P

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Peñarol de Mar del Plata

0xa51fd7…d1ee

49¢+1pp$0P

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Olímpico de La Banda

0x236dda…34ef

49¢1pp$0P

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: La Unión de Formosa

0xc2bb54…4dea

49¢±0$0P

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Boca Juniors

0x431dd5…aa35

49¢+1pp$0P

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Unión de Santa Fe

0xeacf0f…6c9d

49¢+1pp$0P

Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Instituto de Córdoba

0x3d992a…e565

49¢+1pp$0P

Analysis

This probability represents the current market estimate that Boca Juniors will win the Liga Nacional de Básquetbol championship. The 50% price reflects deep uncertainty among traders, likely driven by competitive balance within the league and potentially limited recent performance data or incomplete season context as of May 2026. The championship outcome will be determined by season-end tournament results, with resolution depending on playoff performance and final standings. Key factors include Boca Juniors' current win-loss record relative to competitors, their historical championship frequency, roster changes or injuries affecting performance, head-to-head records against other top contenders, and playoff format structure that might favor certain team profiles.

  • Boca Juniors' current position in league standings and recent game outcomes
  • Trading volume and contract liquidity across the 17 competing teams—zero volume on most contracts suggests limited new information or market conviction
  • Playoff bracket structure and seeding implications that could advantage or disadvantage Boca relative to other contenders
  • Roster availability and injury status of key Boca players versus primary competitors
  • Historical championship frequency and performance patterns of Boca versus the runner-up team currently priced at 50%

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.